In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Shane Smith (RHP)
2025 Stats: 146.1 IP | 3.81 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 23.5 K% | 9.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
What a wonderful surprise Smith provided White Sox fans in 2025. A Rule 5 pick who only recently stretched to be a starter, Smith displayed a large uptick in velocity to 95/96 mph and developed the stamina to hold in throughout 80+ pitches as the year progressed. His four-seamer and sinker lack Fan4+ marks, but they performed exceptionally well to both LHB and RHB, even the sinker with a stupid low ICR clip to LHB. Sadly, we should expect both heaters to receive extra punishment in 2026, putting pressure on his secondaries to carry a larger burden.
They certainly weren’t ready to do so in 2025. The curveball and changeup should be a deadly pair against LHB, but they combined for roughly 50% strikes, about ten points lower than you want to see. The velocity and movement of his curveball + the kick-change’s filth outline a larger ceiling for both, but it remains to be seen. There is a slider as well, which had a bit of success against RHB, though it carried a poor 11% SwStr rate and often fell in the heart of the plate instead of its ideal down-and-away home. I’d want to see a step forward with its command to feel better about Smith against RHB, or it’ll be another season hoping Smith can befriend Koufax and induce weaker contact than expected. Throw in the team context of the White Sox that limited him to just seven Wins in 2025, and I’m out. I really hope Smith takes that next step and he could be a strong arm if he nails down the secondaries, but the innately questionable fastballs with his control issues, merged with a poor team context, is a whole lot to overcome.
Quick Take: Smith popped seemingly out of nowhere last season, though he overperformed based on his poor control and susceptible heaters. He’s more likely to lay on an unproductive floor than scratch his exciting ceiling, especially without a strong team supporting him.
Davis Martin (RHP)
2025 Stats: 142.2 IP | 4.10 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 17.3 K% | 8.0 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The fastballs are nothing to write home about (at least he’s trying to go inside with the sinker to RHB?) and Martin is still working on the feel of his cutter and changeup. There’s potential in both secondaries – the cutter is doing a great job staying away from RHB, but is often too far and doesn’t do enough to LHB, while the kick-change has solid movement but LHB rarely provide whiffs – and the focus on 2026 should be Martin’s development of those two pitches. Hopefully he can become a Stuff McNasty akin to Kluber, Clev, Bieber, Carrasco, where the fastballs were attempted called strikes to open the door for more secondaries. I’m not holding my breath and see him in the meantime as a rare streamer, at best.
Quick Take: Martin’s four-seamer and sinker are too hittable, while the cutter and changeup are not missing bats enough to pick up the slack. There is some potential on the nights he’s in command with both offerings, though there is still a wide chasm between his current state and a consistent producer.
On The Fringe
Jonathan Cannon (RHP)
2025 Stats: 103.2 IP | 5.82 ERA | 1.49 WHIP | 18.5 K% | 8.2 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
When Cannon is able to actually locate his sinker, cutter, four-seamer, and changeup, it’s a pretty thing. Some games it’s an email that never arrives, another a fleeting breeze you wish would stay, and on the rare evening, it’s the smart commuter you follow when the trains are messed up, and they’re going to the same stations as you. Oh, I thought this was going to be bad, but it’s taken care of! Today’s a good day! Cannon should not be relied upon to be the wily, crafty command arm needed without impressive fastballs, and during drafts, he’s a dart-throw for AL-Only leagues desperate for potential QS arms. He’s not even guaranteed a rotation spot after a back strain last season. Expectations should be awfully low.
Quick Take: The best version of Cannon is a command arm who can efficiently pitch through six frames. That ideal is similar to my vision of opening a can of tuna for my cat, which never comes with perfectly scraping her food out of the can and preserving the non-fish smell from the kitchen. The day is unlikely to ever arrive.
Sean Burke (RHP)
2025 Stats: 134.1 IP | 4.22 ERA | 1.44 WHIP | 22.3 K% | 10.6 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
There has been discussion of Burke pitching out of the pen instead of the rotation, and yet, I look at this rotation and wonder how they manage to get through a season without Burke going every five days. That isn’t to say he’s expected to be the arm we saw for an exciting trio of starts in September ’24 or even the absurd 97 mph four-seamer he displayed in his final game of the year – 4.1 IP and 80 pitches of one-run ball and ten strikeouts. Yeesh. – and it’ll come down to the secondaries. His four-seamer? It’s solid at 95+ mph with seven feet of extension, good vert, and high intent. We like this foundational pitch, not love but it’s why he’s here. The slider, curve, and change are what will make or break his season and I’m not confident. The slider is decent to RHB with a middling SwStr rate and generally outside, and it would take another step forward if he could get it properly down to escape barrels. LHB get served big curveballs and unwieldy changeups, both of which need to be better. The slowball’s sub 50% strike rate simply ain’t it, and the curveball’s massive -17″ drop sounds cool, but it makes it difficult for Burke to locate properly, ending up with a sub 55% loLoc and a bit too much damage off the pitch. If it can get a little bit lower without dipping under the 60% strike rate, it’s possible Burke can finally have a pitch against LHB above a 13% SwStr rate. That would be cool.
We could see a step forward from Burke this year, and I’ll be monitoring him during the year, hoping to find the perfect point to snag him off the wire. Don’t bank on growth. Instead, remember what to look for during the year and hope for the best.
Quick Take: I’m curious about Burke. The four-seamer is solid and there are paths to success with his secondaries to create a generally productive arm in 15-teamers, if not 12-teamers. He’s a possible add mid-season with too much risk without the high ceiling before any evidence of off-season development.
Anthony Kay (LHP)
2025 Stats (NPB): 155.0 IP | 1.74 ERA | 0.98 WHIP | 21.5 K% | 6.8 BB%
Kay is returning to the big leagues after spending two years in the NPB and after reading Michael Baumann’s article on FanGraphs, the sense is he’s a Toby at best, working with a wide arsenal to induce weak contact. He also went on Robert Murray’s podcast and outlined how he had to move away from high four-seamers to sinkers and cutters due to the flatter Japanese swings, which could theoretically revert in the majors and bring some of his strikeout ability back. Expect a crafty southpaw with a low strikeout rate and 50%+ groundballs, which has me wondering if I should place Kay on #SwatchWatch2026.
Quick Take: He’s a bit unknown after two years in the NPB, but at the very least, he’ll get all the opportunity to soak innings for the White Sox in a rebuilding year. It may help grant surprising QS numbers with a decent ERA as a potential SWATCH, with a floor that should scare many without strikeouts and an inflated WHIP.
Grant Taylor (RHP)
2025 Stats: 36.2 IP | 4.91 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 34.4 K% | 9.6 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Taylor is Tyler Glasnow but with a four-seamer that actually misses bats and a flatter attack angle at 98+ mph. It’s pretty unreal. So what’s the issue? Well, health before this past season, a focus as a reliever for all of 2025 (with a manager quote that he’s in all likelihood in the pen again this year), and his four-seamer can’t find strikes against LHB, for some reason. Ten of his fourteen walks came against LHB who saw strikes from his four-seamer just 60% of the time.
He really is a joy to watch, though. That heater is unhittable over the plate, the 85 mph curve is stupid at the same arm angle as the heater and befuddles batters, while there’s a cutter in the middle to help stabilize. I truly wish he were starting and would consider him Top 60 (if not higher) the moment he gets a gig. Outside of pitching for a poor team, I’m hesitant to gush too much about Taylor as he’d likely be inefficient and rarely find the sixth inning, let alone complete it. And his health track record does him few favors. Still, if he happens to be a proper SP during the year, just pick him up. That is all.
Quick Take: His stuff is stupid good with control that is improving more than I expected but still has a way to go. Sadly, he’s all but certainly a reliever for 2026, and reserved as an instant snag if he were to ever get a promotion to the rotation.
Names To Know
Wikelman González (RHP)
Gonzalez came over to the White Sox in the Crochet deal and pitched sixteen games in relief with a flat 95 mph four-seamer and decent extension, backed by a trio of secondaries (curve, change, slider) that each returned many whiffs, but were hit hard and struggled to find strikes. Whiff, ball, or thump. He may be among the arms contending for a rotation spot in the spring and with a low-to-mid 80s slider and a 79mph curve, I doubt Gonzalez has enough to support a four-seamer that doesn’t have the command to be the hiLoc king it needs to be.
Sean Newcomb (LHP)
You’re still here. The Red Sox needed arms early and he found five starts at the beginning of 2025 before settling into a reliever role with Boston and the Athletics, advertising Newcomb as a potential rotation piece for the start of the season. His SP/RP eligibility may be appealing to some, and with an 18-19″ horizontal sinker inside to LHB + a sweeping curve at 81 mph (it’s a sweeper at -11″ of depth due to the arm angle), it’s all about trying to make due against RHB, who struggled hitting Newcomb’s two-plane four-seamer at 11″ of horizontal and 15″ of vert. This seems like an endorsement, Nick. It’s not, but maybe it is? He’s really one tweak away against LHB (figure out the curve) and one other tweak away against RHB (the changeup or cutter need to step up) to becoming an actually decent arm. I’m not going to be biased of his history and overlook that Newcomb still has some effectiveness from the left side. Here’s a deep sleeper for your AL-Only leagues.
Jedixson Paez (RHP)
Acquired in the Rule 5 draft this off-season (like Shane Smith last year!), Paez was a command artist with his sinker before he developed excellent secondaries, then endured a calf injury that may have led to his worse results in 2025. Considering Paez has to remain on the 26-man roster all year or be released back to his previous team, expect the White Sox to let Paez at least pitch out of the pen, if not stretched out to be a starter – the latter makes more sense given his sub 4% walk rates paired with 25%+ strikeout rates of the past. I’m so curious how he looks in the spring and if the White Sox don’t have their rotation filled, Paez could easily slide into the #5 spot.
Ky Bush (LHP)
Bush debuted in 2024 with four starts, looked incredibly unimpressive, then underwent TJS in February of last season. When Bush returns, I expect him to go to the minors before making his MLB return, where he hopefully displays 92 mph velocity, the same seven feet of extension, and good feel for his cut-four-seamer, slider, curve, changeup mix to turn into a proper SWATCH. That would be fun.
Drew Thorpe (RHP)
Thorpe appeared for nine starts in 2024 and underwent TJS in March of 2025, though his 2024 gave us little hope at the time for an exceptional 2025. He’s a changeup-first arm with nothing else. Seriously. 91 mph four-seamers with mediocre sliders, and a decent cutter. It really is the changeup show, which is a great pitch n all, but RHP who lean heavily on a changeup rarely work out quickly in the majors. When we do see Thorpe again, it may not be until 2027, and I hope he’s flexing new skills when the time comes.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Noah Schultz (LHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a six-foot-ten southpaw who looms over batters and dares them to attack his heaters at 95/96 mph while keeping changeups away from RHB and sliders down-and-away from LHB. He looks destined to be a force in the majors, but health has gotten in the way recently in the form of a knee injury that interrupted his time in Triple-A. As long as he’s good to go this year, Schultz is likely to plow through April and May, demanding a callup this summer, creating a spring to the waiver wire. Yes, he’s legit and could be great from the moment he arrives, even if the Shag Rug will appear through bouts of chaotic command.
Tyler Schweitzer (LHP, AAA –> AA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Oh look, it’s a SWATCH with a cut-fastball at 92/93 mph and a legit changeup with great fade that lands away from RHB. The curve and slider have good depth to them due to Schweitzer’s over-the-top delivery, though he needs a little help at times getting the slide piece down-and-away to LHB. Both breakers should be good mix-up offerings to RHB and nailing his four-seamer spots should be a larger focus – it should all be about setting up that slowball. There’s just one problem. Schweitzer was promoted to Triple-A in late April and was horrendous. He was moved to the pen in late June and demoted, where he refused to allow a single run in nearly 33 innings – all in relief, but as a bulk arm, averaging around four innings apiece. While I don’t have data of those Double-A games, I’m willing to wager it was with the slowball coming into form and I’m incredibly excited to see how he looks in the spring. He’ll likely have to prove himself in Triple-A again before getting a cup of coffee, and it could be a quick promotion after that.
Hagen Smith (LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Hagen got his money’s worth in 2025 after missing time with elbow soreness – according to James Fegan of FanGraphs, Smith experimented consistently with leg kicks to find the right timing and he’s still working on perfecting his delivery to maintain his mid-to-upper 90s velocity and MLB-ready control. His heater and slider from the left side are absolutely elite and are sure to enamor fans the moment he arrives, while the addition of a third pitch will be the final piece of the puzzle to keep him going deep into games and preventing long at-bats. It could be a slower breaker, maybe a kick-change, maybe a cutter or sinker, whatever it is, I’m sure it’ll make an appearance in Triple-A this year, en route to a promotion this summer. Smith is an auto-add the moment he gets the call.
Riley Gowens (RHP, AA, Age 26) – Watch Video
It’s not a hard four-seamer from Gowens and he doesn’t have a whole lot of depth in the arsenal, but he does feature above-average extension and a gyro slider that creates an effective BSB. I wonder what the actual marks are on his four-seamer (what’s the vert or HAVAA to complement the extension?), though I am inclined to believe there’s something here despite the velocity. He may be a sneaky arm when he arrives in Triple-A.
Tanner McDougal (RHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Tanner sports a big fastball in the upper 90s that he hurls from a high release point, limiting its effectiveness as it matches bat planes more than his low-slotted peers, but it still carves up many batters because 99 mph is 99 mph. His high-80s slider has done well inside the zone as a strike-stabilizing offering, though the curve and changeup aren’t in the ideal place for a proper starter’s mix. His command inside the zone is also suspect, making his sub 8% walk rate a bit misleading – McDougal could have control problems once batters are able to handle his velocity inside the zone. If McDougal can improve his precision and discover a true #3 offering for LHB, he’ll make a splash as a starter in the majors as soon as this summer. However, the two-pitch approach with high octane velocity has routinely outlined a reliever profile and Tanner may be destined to the pen if the control isn’t kept in check.
Christian Oppor (LHP, A+, Age 21) – Watch Video
The White Sox somehow have three legit southpaws in their system, with Oppor looking glorious via an upper 90s two-seamer, a big sweeper, and a changeup that still has a bit of polish to add with a lack of arm-side fade. With 116 strikeouts in 87.2 IP of A+ under his belt, he should get the promotion to Double-A this season and quickly begin whispers of a callup. As long as the walks don’t haunt him (11.5% rate), he should vault up the system and directly into fantasy relevance when he dons the White Sox uniform.
Aldrin Batista (RHP, A+, Age 22) – Watch Video
An elbow injury halted the athletic Batista’s progression and the small pieces we’ve seen this year have been a step down from the low-to-mid 90s sinkerball with a plus slider. He’s a dark horse to make it to the majors this season, but he should make it to Double-A this year and if he can regain his momentum, there could be a ‘Toby” on the horizon…