Kyle Tucker seemingly has to decide between contract length or high average annual value (AAV).
With the top free agent expected to agree to a deal as early as Thursday, according to The Post, the outfielder appears to deciding between two different contract formats.
The Mets have offered an eye-opening $50 million per season on a four-year deal, The Post confirmed, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan told Sportsnet on Wednesday that the Blue Jays are the only team that has shown a willingness to “potentially” offer as many as 10 years to the Cubs star.
Kyle Tucker is the top free agent. Getty Images
The Dodgers, as they seemingly do with every free agent, lurk in the shadows, likely more in the Mets’ realm of a low-year, high-AAV offer based on their history.
It’s created an interesting market for the soon-to-be 29-year-old.
“The market might be almost working backward at this point where it started off high, that was the expectation, that was the hope, didn’t materialize quite like he liked,” Passan told Sportsnet. “Now, he’s going to go back down, get that AAV juiced up, get guys interested and then suddenly all bets are off.”
There had been talk of a $400 million-$500 million deal when he hit free agency, but it would appear that is not on the table since otherwise one would assume he would have signed such a deal.
David Stearns has offered Kyle Tucker $50M per season. Robert Sabo for NY Post
That leads to the natural thought that the Blue Jays’ larger offer lacks in AAV compared to the Mets and potentially the Dodgers, yet offers long-term security.
Some players are willing to bet on themselves and have seen it pay off such as Pete Alonso, while others may be concerned about a market at 31 when they didn’t receive the offers they wanted when younger.
Any calculation, of course, factors in the idea that Tucker could bank $200 million or so — using the Mets’ offer as a guideline — to chip into an expected figure.
Andrew Friedman’s Dodgers always lurk for every top free agent. AP
In a hypothetical situation where the Mets offered four years, $200 million and the Blue Jays proposed 10 years, $300 million, Tucker would be weighing whether entering his age-33 season he could land a $100 million deal again.
However, it’s hard to envision him landing six more guaranteed years, like the Blue Jays’ offer, when he couldn’t secure that deal now.
“He could theoretically go back out onto the market as a 31-year-old, it’s a little different, that’s the thing, it’s a little different when you’re older,” Passan said. “You would think that more teams would be interested frankly with a guy who is still in his 20s and is the caliber player he is when he reaches free agency, but sometimes markets move in very mysterious way.”
Passan noted that the weak free-agent classes the next two years could factor into how teams operate in these final weeks of free agency.
Cody Bellinger is also still available, but the Yankees are the team that has been linked to him the most and they are in a standoff regarding contract length.