The Tampa Bay Rays‘ proposed memorandum of understanding with Hillsborough College on a site for a new stadium is out, and the initial news coverage of same tells us next to nothing we want to know about who’ll actually pay for what. So let’s go to the actual document and see what’s what, then reconvene at the bottom to try to estimate a total subsidy cost:

The Property is an approximately 113 acre-site located in Tampa, Florida, bounded by W. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, N. Lois Avenue, W. Tampa Bay Boulevard., and N. Dale Mabry Highway

This is Hillsborough College’s Dale Mabry Campus, which would largely be turned over to the Rays, with the college building new facilities on one corner of the property. How much room the campus will get to retain “shall be agreed to in the Definitive Agreements,” which are TBD.

HC and the Rays will negotiate in good faith to agree on an ownership and financing structure and the conditions precedent for the contribution of the Property by HC.

I.e,, final lease terms, including things like whether the Rays will pay any rent for the state-owned site, are also TBD.

The Rays will construct a mixed-use development that may consist of, but is not limited to, hotels, retail space, multifamily buildings, sports and health related buildings, commercial buildings, parking structures, restaurants and other related buildings (“Mixed-Use Development”). The Parties acknowledge that the Rays will have sole and exclusive control over the Mixed-Use Development, during and after construction. The scope of the Mixed-Use Development will be determined as part of the Definitive Agreements

In addition to a stadium, Rays owner Patrick Zalupski will get to build a whole new neighborhood, as former team owner Stuart Sternberg planned to do at St. Petersburg’s Gas Plant District before backing out of that deal early last year. All revenues from that project will go to Zalupski, nothing to the land’s state taxpayer owners.

HC will ground lease the entire Property, except for the College District, to the Rays or a Rays’ affiliate by long-term lease of not less than 99 years.

Since Hillsborough College is a state facility, the property will be exempt from property taxes, including the parcel the team plans to build its mixed-use district on. Also, hey, it’s another 90-plus-year lease, just like the Washington Commanders deal! Lease terms TBD, of course, but it means that any discounted rent could add up to one hell of a lot, as it did for the $6.6 billion Commanders subsidy.

(Economist Geoff Propheter, who crunched the numbers for the Commanders deal, delivers the mic drop on this via email: “If there’s an upside to all of these stupidly long land leases that are so common in sports, I won’t be alive to remind people that I told them so.”)

The Parties anticipate the prominence and activity generated by the Project that will significantly enhance HC’s visibility, strengthen its community presence, and create valuable opportunities for outreach, partnerships, and student engagement.

LOL.

The Rays will pursue various economic incentive programs at the local and state levels in connection with the Project

You didn’t think Zalupski would be content with getting to build his stadium on state-provided tax-free land, did you? Florida already has a sports slush fund that draws on state sales tax dollars, and Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa could always offer tax breaks as well.

The MOU has already been unanimously approved by Hillsborough College’s board of trustees and has the backing of Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has a long history with Zalupski, appointing him to the University of Florida’s board of trustees after Zalupski gave $250,000 to his Super PAC. DeSantis said yesterday that while he wouldn’t help fund the stadium itself, he would consider spending to move a juvenile jail currently on the site and, in the words of the Tampa Bay Times, “help pay for roads and sewers to prevent traffic jams,” which suggests some innovative mass transit solutions.

So, what are we talking about in terms of public cost? It’s hard to say until we see the final lease agreement, but Propheter does provide a figure for the value of the land itself: $250 million if the college were to sell it, between $582 million and $1.7 billion (in present value) if they leased it. Add in whatever Zalupski would get in tax breaks (Propheter can’t estimate those yet because he doesn’t know how much the stadium and development would be appraised at), state road and sewer spending, and any “economic incentives,” and it all seems very likely to exceed the $1 billion that Sternberg rejected one year ago. All this has to get approved by the state and likely Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa as well, of course, but never bet against team owners finding a greater fool.