Injuries were the primary culprit, though there were certainly some underperformances as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missed time, as they did in 2024, and when they played they were still working their way back into form. Getting those stars and others, such as Austin Riley and Matt Olson, back to full capacity and/or productivity is the Braves’ best hope for a quick bounce-back. The projections think they have a good chance of getting that. My simulations have the Braves winning 11 more games than their baseline win estimate of 80. In other words, their average projection qualifies them as a breakout team, the only team for which that is the case.
