Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-Man: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (how come I’ve been saying his name Cleese like he’s John Cleese son?) is a 30-year-old, right-handed pitcher whom the Jays signed to a 5-year, $210 million contract. It is more than possible that the last couple of years of that contract won’t go well.

Cease has pitched seven seasons in the MLB and has a 65-58 record, 3.88 ERA in 188 starts, and a 16.7 bWAR. His best season was 2022, when he had a 2.20 ERA, went 14-8 in 32 starts, and posted a 6.4 bWAR, finishing second in Cy Young voting (he finished fourth in 2024).

In our post about the signing, we had a poll. 42.9% of us were ‘Kind of Happy’, 41.8% were Very Happy. Only 5.1% were Kind of or Very Unhappy. I’m slightly curious how you could be very upset, but maybe they were Yankees fans.

But then we also had a poll asking, ‘Should the Jays sign Cease if the cost is $31 million a year for five years?’ and 64.2% said no. So we are nothing if not flexible.

Last year wasn’t his best; he had an 8-12 record and a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts. Everyone is allowed a down year.

He’s been incredibly durable. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in each of the last five seasons. The season before that was COVID-shortened. And he’s thrown between 165 and 189 innings in those five seasons.

Dylan throws five pitches, but his Four Seamer (averaging 97.1 MPH last year) and Slider show up 83% percent of the time. The rest: Knuckle Curve, Sinker, Sweeper, and Change-up. I’d think that, as he ages and perhaps loses a bit on the fastball, he’ll have to start throwing one or two of those secondary pitches more often.

I’d like to think he’ll be in the 2-4 range for WAR in most of his seasons with the Jays, but I’ll hold out hope that he can have another 5+ season. Dylan threw a lot of innings in his 20s, and often, guys like that don’t age well, but ‘often’ isn’t ‘always’.

Steamer thinks he’ll make 32 starts, throw 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA and a 12-10 record and a 3.8 fWAR. I think 185 innings is a lot; he’s only been over that once in his career, and the Jays aren’t the kind of team to push a starter.