2026 baseball projections are out now, so I’m going to begin to take a look at how the crystal ball of statistical projections sees things for the coming year. Sure, we might lose one of our key players in Brendan Donovan, so I will probably do this again (plus ZiPS literally just came out a few days ago in its raw form), but I have grown wary of the thought of either keeping or watching Donovan go, so for now, I’ll just assume he’s going to stick around. Even though it would seem that he is going to be traded any day or week now…

But wait! I have some poll results from last week’s polls: 82% of voters said that it isn’t fair that Jim Edmonds did not make the Hall of Fame because he is practically just as good as his old teammate Scott Rolen, as well as the two most recent Hall of Fame inductees Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. 10% of voters said that he was straight up snubbed by the writers. Only 8% of voters thought that he fell just short and should not be in the Hall of Fame.

As far as the Nolan Arenado poll went, 32% of voters think that Nolan Arenado will fall just short of getting into the Hall of Fame, and that he has rapidly entered his decline phase. 27% of voters think that he’s so much on the cusp of induction that it is impossible to tell if he will make the Hall of Fame. 5% vote for duh, everyone knows Nolan Arenado and his legendary defense, it’s the Hall of FAME, he should be in. Then there was a split 18% of voters saying that he will make it in eventually, and 18% thinking that he should not even be considered for the Hall of Fame.

So VEB is pretty united in thinking Jim Edmonds should make it to the Hall of Fame, and in thinking Nolan Arenado probably won’t make the Hall of Fame. At least according to those two polls from last week. Now back to this week’s scheduled programming:

These are probably going to be the Cardinals key players (unless of course Donovan is traded, then who knows):

Click this link in the event that the embed link doesn’t work on wordpress.

So the early results are in and as you can tell, ZiPS and Fangraphs Depth Charts like the Cardinals starters ok enough, but the Bat X (another system that was actually pretty good when using it last season) makes our best 9 look a little weak. That said this will be one of the more difficult teams to project with so many unknowns and young players adding to the uncertainty. However, The Bat thinks our starting rotation will be better than some might expect. Albeit, nothing too impressive now matter how you slice it.

If Brendan Donovan leaves, the projections see him as our 2nd most valuable player at this point. Masyn Winn’s elite defense has made a believer of both ZiPS and Fangraphs Depth Charts, so that’s an encouraging sign. He should be our most valuable player, at least according to projections. Here’s where I’m going to disagree with the projections though…

I think Ivan Herrera will be our second most valuable player, even if Donovan stays. The projections think he will be about as valuable as Pedro Pages, but I think he can surpass that, even with The Bat X doubtful projection. No projection system has him cracking 3 WAR, but I believe he can do it. But on the other hand, this is the season where I will define my thinking of him… will he stick at catcher, and more importantly, can he play a full season?

Herrera staying healthy could be a huge boost for this team. Outside of Winn and Herrera, I don’t see much potential of an over 3 WAR season from anyone except JJ Wetherholt, who could win Rookie of the Year if he cracks 3 WAR. Sure it is possible he will cross that milestone this season, but I think it unfair to expect that from him in his first year. If Brendan Donovan somehow completes a full season in St Louis in 2026, sure he has a chance at cracking the 3 WAR barrier, but I wouldn’t bank on that.

The Pedro Pages projections are very solid but I’m not even sure that he won’t be traded still. So I don’t have much to say about that other than his defense carries him well. I’d like to instead focus on Lars Nootbaar: if healthy, he’s putting up at least 2 WAR this year. Not bad on such a mediocre team. Another bright spot is none of the projection systems think that Jordan Walker will continue to be a negative value MLB player. In fact, Fangraphs Depth Charts and The Bat X think he will be around a win over replacement level. So I guess that might be nice. For what it’s worth, ZiPS thinks Jordan is good for 14 home runs. Depth Charts and the Bat X say 16 homers. So he seems to be destined for 15+ home runs. I guess that would be ok.

If anyone besides Ivan Herrera can bring some offensive upside to the ballclub, it might be Alec Burleson. While ZiPS and The Bat X think that he will have trouble cracking the 2 WAR barrier, Fangraphs Depth Charts sees a little more potential than that, and I suppose if everything breaks Burly’s way, he’s another candidate for a breakout 3+ WAR season. It’s not really out of the question, given his track record of improving noticeably each year of his MLB career. He looked like he couldn’t hit in his cup of coffee in 2022. In 2023, he was a below average hitter. In 2024, he was an above average hitter. Then, in 2025 he raised his batting average and on-base percentage enough that he was awarded a Silver Slugger (I guess because he bounced around 1B, DH, and OF).

That tracks to a wRC+ of 56, 89, 106, and 124. Since he has went up by 18 wRC+ from 2023-2024 and also from 2024-2025, I guess that means he will hit at 142 wRC+ in 2026! Then we would have our best hitter.

What is perhaps most interesting about the starting pitching: Michael McGreevy is projected to be our best starting pitcher. Maybe this is his year. Maybe not, but I think 2 WAR from McGreevy is totally possible. Just behind McGreevy is Liberatore as #2, and for what it’s worth, The Bat sees both McGreevy and Liberatore as 2 WAR starters. I’m sure it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine Dustin May as another 2 WAR starter. His projections however range from 1.5 to 1.8 WAR.

What might be most surprising is Andre Pallante the solid #4 starting pitcher that the projections see. Heck, I’ll take 1.4 to 1.5 WAR from Andre Pallante! And then the other projected top 5 SP is Kyle Leahy at this point. Guess we will see what he looks like in Spring Training, because we now have Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins staring into the starting rotation. Perhaps those guys become middle relievers though. Or, it could be Pallante and Leahy.

Of all other pitchers possible to crack the starting rotation, ZiPS gives parlance to the idea that Quinn Mathews will be getting some innings, around 46 IP is what is projected. What are the breakdowns for Fangraphs Depth Charts projections on innings pitched? Leahy will get around 128 IP with Pallante (148), McGreevy (149), May (153), and Liberatore (157) shouldering most of the workload. Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins are projected at around 100 IP each to round out a top 7 in possible rotation arms.

The key components to the bullpen are projected to be Matt Svanson, JoJo Romero, Riley O’Brien, Gordon Graceffo, and Ryne Stanek all getting 60 or so innings. I think the bullpen could be a strength again this year.

What if we get lucky and we get the best projections from each system for each player? That line of thinking has us at 7 WAR production from Winn + Wetherholt, close to 6 WAR from the Herrera + Pages combo, close to 5 WAR from Burleson + Nootbaar, and if you get another 6 WAR from the trio of Donovan, Scott, and Walker, that doesn’t sound so bad does it.

And if things go well for the rotation, it’s not impossible that the top 7 innings eaters are worth 10 WAR.

Now worst case scenarios… Leahy fails at starting pitching and the rotation bottoms out at around 5 WAR total. Winn and Wetherholt both fail to pass 2 WAR. Donovan is gone. Alec Burleson’s 2025 season was a bit of a mirage and he hits like he did in 2024. Lars Nootbaar is hurt again. Herrera at catcher only causes confusion for the whole team and he doesn’t hit like he did last year. Victor Scott II is barely above replacement level because he can’t hit, and Walker is a failed prospect. Yes, that is a last place team, probably. And of course in this nightmare scenario, Gorman still never pans out.

Well I hope that was fun! It has both given me a little hope, and a glimpse into how bad this team could be. I almost didn’t even write about projections this year, because the highlights and entertainment value are likely to be to see how new players perform and grow, and to see how all this rebuilding and retooling pans out. It feels like more of a research and development team than one worried about win totals and WAR values. But in the coming weeks I plan on looking at the NL Central and sorting out how likely we are to finish ahead of any of the other NL Central teams. Hey, it’s not much, but finishing ahead of last place is definitely a goal of some sort.

That concludes the baseball coverage, now that I have finished writing about 2025 music in the past few weeks, I am about to start a new project that will take me all year probably. I have experienced life in over 50 years now, being born at the end of 1975. So I am going to go back and write about each year of my life, from the standpoint of music/arts/culture. And knowing me, it’ll be mainly about music but I’ll be throwing random movies and other things in, as well, just to keep it fun.

I was born just after the end of the Vietnam War, and the founding of Microsoft in Albuquerque, New Mexico. SNL made its debut and Jaws was the big movie of the year. The first successful test flight of my favorite plane ever, the supersonic Concorde, occurred. The Rubik’s Cube was patented. Watergate was still on everyone’s minds. Benoit Mandelbrot coined the term fractal. But I wasn’t alive for most of that year.

As far as baseball goes, the Reds were in the NL West somehow and won 108 games, the Brewers were in the AL East, the Pirates were the best team in the NL Central, Rod Carew had a .359 batting average, the home run leaders were in the upper 30s in total, Frank Tanana threw 269 strikeouts, Hank Aaron passed Babe Ruth in career RBI, Lou Brock reached 2,500 hits vs the Padres with the birds on the bat on his jersey, Joe Morgan was the MVP, and the Reds edged out the Red Sox in a 7 game World Series. The Cardinals and Mets barely finished above .500 and were in the same division. They used to be a key rival for the Cardinals.

Always music-minded, I will now turn to some musical selections… the highest esteemed albums of that year were releases like ‘Wish You Were Here’ by Pink Floyd, ‘Blood On The Tracks’ by Bob Dylan, and Eno’s ‘Another Green World’. Those are all fine albums, but I am here to tell you about my favorites from 1975. Maybe you’ll hear a sleeper here that you didn’t know about… or not!

links to full albums on album title

Mahavishnu Orchestra – ‘Visions of the Emerald Beyond’ I would argue that this is John McLaughlin’s most underrated album, only eclipsed by 1971’s ‘Inner Mounting Flame’. The heights are even higher on Visions of the Emerald Beyond, however! And it even gets downright funky at one point. Rock n Roll in its highest form, absolutely astonishing. Every time I hear this album I wonder how someone can be so good at guitar, while finding other musicians on that level… Let your spirit soar into the emerald beyond.Rush – ‘Caress of Steel’ I have a soft spot for this album, and another that I feel is undervalued in an even more famous prog rock band’s discography. It is worth listening to this album for the epic cut “The Necromancer” alone. While “The Fountain of Lamneth” gives us a taste of what’s to come on ‘2112’ and ‘Hemispheres’ with Rush’s first truly epic length prog rock songs. “Lakeside Park” and “Bastille Day” are two of Rush’s very best songs and are fan favorites… and “I Think I’m Going Bald” is a rare taste of comedy from the band, sounding like a stoned AC/DC. I always wondered how this album flopped while the ones after it succeeded, but I suppose timing is everything when you’re coming up with new ideas.Yezda Urfa – ‘Boris’ If you have this album as the best album of 1975, I cannot argue with you there. This may be the most ambitious album of the whole list. It’s expansive prog rock sound is bigger than the genre. It stays completely authentic without sounding pretentious, despite its advanced musical nature, it shows restraint and wisdom. It gives you glimpses into the future, invents whole genres years before they exist without anyone knowing. The recording sounds very real, immediate, intimate. Energetic guitars, synthesizers, complicated bass parts, and tasteful but very dynamic and inventive drumming create a whole musical world to be enveloped in. Prog rock at its best. If that wasn’t enough, here are 27 minutes of bonus tracks!Budgie – ‘Bandolier’ if you don’t know Budgie, well I’m hear to tell you that they are one of the best rock n roll bands of all time! This is not my favorite album by them but it is still so good that it is towards the top of my list! For fans of Led Zeppelin, early Rush, Blue Cheer, and Black Sabbath. The tightest riffs! Budgie is a key band to 1970’s rock if you have not heard of them. They have elements of prog but I’d file them under early heavy metal and straight up 70’s rock.Frank Zappa – ‘One Size Fits All’ my prog rock extravaganza continues with The Mothers of Invention masterpiece ‘One Size Fits All’. I once did a project with some close music friends I’ve made over the years and they came to the conclusion that the album opener “Inca Roads” is the best Zappa song of all time. I wasn’t full in agreement with the majority but it is certainly one of his most impressive musical pieces, insanely complex and interesting. The whole album is really good though, flows from start to finish.King Tubby – ‘The Roots of Dub’ I must admit I am not the biggest reggae fan… unless it’s true dub reggae! I love that shit. I first learned about it in my Sound Production class in college, and how King Tubby was one of the originators of the sound, which along with people like Brian Eno really started to push the idea of the studio as member of the band. The use of effects such as delay, echo, tape loops, and other studio tricks were employed by Tubby, who along with Lee Scratch Perry was ahead of their time in music production while using less equipment than many of their peers. Anyhow, ‘The Roots of Dub’ shows the beginnings of this style of music and is a bit more simple than some dub productions, but it’s also pure and happy music showing what you can do on a DIY budget. He then created his Hometown Hi-fi soundsystem and became one of the most inventive producers of all time.Fripp & Eno – ‘Evening Star’ is an inspirational collaboration between two of the all time musical greats. If you like ambient music and/or drone, this helped write the book on it. You will hear some of the most beautiful and welcoming music imaginable in the world of ‘Evening Star’ as well as its more somber second half which comes down from the ecstatic highs. I know Eno also released ‘Another Green World’ and more in 1975, but I have to keep it prog adjacent with Fripp involved too! Haha, just kidding. I just like this album a lot and think it’s pretty sounding.Black Sabbath – ‘Sabotage’ to me, this album came out after Black Sabbath peaked. It’s hard to believe that this is Sabbath’s 6th album, but maybe it explains that they were a little burnt out by the time ‘Sabotage’ was released. Putting out two albums in 1970, and then an album a year for three years after while touring a lot and partying like no men on earth before, might do that to you. Seeing Black Sabbath this low on my list kind of surprises me and probably you too, but it’s on here primarily because of how good the song “Hole In The Sky” really really is, and because of “Symptom of the Universe”. Even though I think of them as past their prime and burnt out already here, I still think of it as the last great Black Sabbath album. But holy moly Batman, the first 6 Sabbath albums have so many incredibly awesome songs that defined heavy metal.Henry Cow – ‘In Praise of Learning’ a slice of avant garde prog that could be seen in the same league as maybe ‘Larks Tongues In Aspic’ by King Crimson with its use of space, free jazz outburts, sound experiments, but showing moments of all out frenetic musicianship and virtuosity. It’s a little bit pretentious but if you can get past that it’s doing a lot of things that few dare to accomplish. Elements of postmodern classical, avant jazz, prog rock, protest music, and experimentation. And in some ways it sounds like a precursor to no wave and post-punk that would come years later.Betty Davis – ‘Nasty Gal’ I love how Betty does funk music and I love her voice. Just a fun listen that was pretty edgy for the times! While I prefer 1974’s ‘They Say I’m Different’, this is definitely a damn good follow up. There is a documentary about her that I definitely recommend watching. She was a controversial musician who just kind of disappeared before she got any more famous. Married to Miles Davis for a time but he got paranoid that she was having an affair with Jimi Hendrix! Which hastened the end of their marriage since she claims she wasn’t. She was a talented NYC enigma who just vanished.

And that right there is my Album of the Year 1975. I have this one on vinyl which I bought on a whim and remains one of my prized possessions!

All righty, one year down many to go! Now hopefully we will get more Cardinals news this week and keep the hot stove going, it’s still January but you know what February means! Keep on rocking in the free world if you can.