The San Diego Padres have a win total of 85.5 for the 2026 MLB season, per the latest odds from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Padres Over/Under Wins 2026
Over 85.5 wins: -120
Under 85.5 wins: +100
Padres Win Total Prediction 2026
Based on the updated MLB betting lines, I predict the Padres will finish under their preseason win total of 85.5 in 2026.
The Padres have finished over their win total in three of the past four years, but all signs point to this team taking a step back.
For starters, San Diego had the second-oldest roster in baseball last year. But due to the front office’s aggressive approach, the Padres don’t have many promising young prospects. They traded their top prospect last year for reliever Mason Miller.
ESPN ranks San Diego’s farm system 30th this spring.
As for the big-league club, I have concerns about the Padres’ rotation after they traded away multiple starters last year for catcher Freddy Fermin. Per RosterResource at FanGraphs, San Diego’s starters rank 24th in projected WAR.
That puts a lot of pressure on the lineup, which ranks 10th in projected WAR. But if there are any signs of regression from a group that has an average age over 30, it could be more difficult to keep pace with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
The Padres finished three games back of the Dodgers in the division last year after being five games behind in 2024. Yet projections don’t expect the Padres to be in the mix this summer.
According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the Padres are projected to finish fourth in the division with 79.3 wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego’s win total drops as more projections are released this month.
Last year, the Padres opened with a win of 89.5 before dropping down to 85.5. I like the under before the market pushes this line down again.
Padres Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
YearWin TotalWinsResult202585.590Over202483.593Over202393.582Under202288.589Over202194.579Under202030.537Over201978.570Under201872.566Under201766.571Over201673.568Under201583.574Under20147977Under201374.576Over201273.576Over201175.571Under201071.590Over200971.575Over200884.563Under20078489Over200677.588Over200585.582Under20048587Over200372.564Under200277.566Under200174.579Over200071.576Over
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