The more we learn about Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s deal with the Boston Red Sox, the more opportunity there is for complaints from the doomsday portion of the fan base.
After previously reporting that Kiner-Falefa and the Red Sox were in agreement on a one-year contract, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Wednesday night that the deal was worth $6 million. That was fast fodder for those who already hated the signing based on Kiner-Falefa’s 76 OPS+ last year, but there are larger topics to unpack.
We know that the collective bargaining tax payroll number means a lot to the Red Sox’s ownership and front office group these days, and we know that the club has been right up against the second penalty threshold since it signed Ranger Suárez last month. Kiner-Falefa’s deal has obvious implications for the situation at large.
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What Kiner-Falefa’s deal does to CBT number
Oct 31, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa (7) takes early batting practice before game six of the 2025 MLB World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
According to a Monday piece from Cotillo, the Red Sox’s projected CBT number stood at $261 million following the trade of Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin to the Chicago White Sox. Assuming there are no deferrals in Kiner-Falefa’s deal, the new number should be $267 million — $3 million over the second tax threshold.
Before the Kiner-Falefa signing, there were many in Red Sox Nation who were holding out hope for a trade that involved another infielder with more name value. The signing seems to decrease the odds of such a trade in the short term, but there could still be an incentive to clear out more payroll.
Ultimately, we don’t know some of the pieces of the puzzle. But the most important question is whether the Red Sox plan to finish the season over or under that second threshold, and from there, we can work backwards.
Want Kiner-Falefa and another infielder at some point? Better unload the $9 million owed to starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval, or attach another prospect to a deal that gets as much of Masataka Yoshida’s $18 million off the books as possible.
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