The addition of Framber Valdez in a surprise move late in free agency is not an indication that Tarik Skubal is going to be traded by the Detroit Tigers, regardless of the outcome of his arbitration hearing.
Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Tigers “do not appear to be wavering” in their insistence that Skubal is going to be on their roster for opening day.
Wednesday marked the arbitration hearing between Skubal and the Tigers. Rosenthal noted result is expected to come at some point on Thursday. If the judge rules in Skubal’s favor, he will be paid $32 million this season. If the judge goes with the Tigers, the two-time AL Cy Young winner will earn $19 million this season.
According to Rosenthal, one rival executive pondered if the Tigers would trade Skubal if they lost the arbitration hearing: “The answer, according to a person briefed on the team’s intentions, is no.”
“One rival executive, granted anonymity for his candor, speculated Wednesday night that a potential trade partner for the Tigers might want to see what Skubal gets in arbitration before finalizing its proposed blockbuster,” Rosenthal wrote.
On the same day as the hearing took place, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Valdez agreed to a three-year, $115 million contract with the Tigers.
The logic of signing Valdez to trade Skubal wouldn’t make sense. It’s a short-term deal with an opt-out after the second season, so there’s no real benefit to the Tigers if their goal is to maximize their window of contention.
If you’re going to pay $38.3 million per season for Valdez, then Skubal at $32 million if he wins his arbitration hearing is still a better value for Detroit.
It’s not as if the Tigers have completely avoided free agency. Alex Bregman turned down a six-year, $171.5 million offer last year to sign with the Boston Red Sox.
Things were much more quiet in Detroit this offseason, but a lot of that seemed to be based around the organization trying to figure out how much Skubal was going to make after the two sides couldn’t find middle ground before going to arbitration.
Even if the Tigers don’t know for sure how the arbitrator will rule, they know Skubal will either make $19 million or $32 million. Having that knowledge does allow them to put together whatever remaining budget they had to signing Valdez.
This doesn’t guarantee that Skubal will finish 2026 in Detroit. He is set to become a free agent after the season, so a midseason trade could be put on the table if the Tigers don’t look like a playoff contender.
Skubal may not bring back as much in a return if he gets traded in July as opposed to right now, but the Tigers can feel confident about their ability to compete for a postseason spot in an AL Central that’s not overflowing with dominant teams right now.
A Tigers team with Skubal and Valdez at the top of the rotation, combined with a group of position players that figures to add top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark at some point early in the year could become a top-tier AL team by season’s end.
The 2024 Tigers made the playoffs by embracing the moniker of “pitching chaos” to describe anyone not named Skubal who was starting for them.
Now, with Valdez also in the mix behind Skubal, the Tigers have a strong No. 2 supporting arguably the best pitcher in MLB.