Momentum is building around the Tampa Bay Rays’ long-running stadium saga, but clarity remains elusive. Hillsborough County commissioners have agreed to begin negotiations with the Rays, a move that follows a highly visible week featuring Governor Ron DeSantis and Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in Tampa. As Tampa Bay Business Journal Editor-at-Large Ashley Kritzer explained on The Ryan Gorman Show, the activity feels significant — yet many of the most important details are still unresolved.
At the center of the uncertainty is money. A frequently cited $2.3 billion estimate for a new ballpark reflects construction costs alone and is far from final. “It’s not firm,” Kritzer noted, adding that escalating costs could push that number even higher. While commissioners have authorized talks with the team, there’s still no clear plan for how Hillsborough County would fund its share — or how much political pressure the governor’s support actually carries as he enters his final years in office.
One of the biggest flashpoints is the county’s Community Investment Tax (CIT). Some commissioners oppose using the tax for a new stadium, while others, including longtime stadium advocate Ken Hagan, argue a deal can’t happen without it. The challenge is that CIT funds are intended for maintenance of existing county-owned facilities, not new stadiums. Supporters are banking on future surplus revenue, a bet that depends heavily on economic conditions and consumer spending.
Beyond the ballpark itself, the proposed 100-acre redevelopment near Tampa International Airport adds another layer to the debate. Under the current concept, Rays ownership would lead that development and reap the financial rewards — a model inspired by the Atlanta Braves’ success. With nearby growth in West Tampa, Midtown, and International Plaza, Kritzer said the location is primed for transformation, but that upside also raises questions about how much public investment is justified.
Meanwhile, across the bay, uncertainty continues at the Tropicana Field site in St. Petersburg. Nine redevelopment proposals were submitted, many featuring major national developers partnering with local groups. Even so, looming mayoral elections and a lack of clarity about the city’s direction could slow progress. As Kritzer put it, in real estate, “time guts a deal,” and right now, time — and certainty — are in short supply.
This week’s discussion only scratches the surface of how complex — and contentious — the Rays’ future could become. Hear the full conversation on The Ryan Gorman Show, including a revealing comparison to another Tampa Bay sports franchise that could change how this deal is viewed.