The Philadelphia Phillies have had an interesting offseason. The front office retained the core after a 96-win season, which was good enough to win the division, but didn’t make clear upgrades for a roster that was clearly flawed in the playoffs.

So, where does that leave the Phillies? How will this team hold up compared to the rest of the juggernauts in the National League East?

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Right now, FanGraphs is predicting the Phillies to finish third in the division, behind the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. Their model gives the team an 18.1 percent chance of actually winning the NL East.

This may seem low for Philadelphia, but the team is still projected to win 86.7 games; they just happen to play in arguably the toughest division in baseball. The Mets are projected to win 89.5 games, while the Braves’ projected win mark is 91.5.

Sep 24, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber (12) shakes hands with third base Alec Bohm (28) after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Sep 24, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber (12) shakes hands with third base Alec Bohm (28) after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

A 10-game drop in win total from a year ago does seem harsh, but, in some ways, it is understandable.

The Phillies’ lineup should be above average, but there are certainly some question marks with the rotation after losing Ranger Suarez in free agency, Zack Wheeler’s health, and the overall unknown of what type of pitcher Andrew Painter will be in his rookie season.

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Given the age of Philadelphia’s core, too, there could also be some regression in store for the team. Still, a top three of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwaber, and Trea Turner is an ever-dangerous trio.

Even with the Phillies being predicted to finish third in the NL East, FanGraphs’ model believes Philadelphia has a 14.2 percent chance to clinch a playoff bye, a 47.3 percent chance to reach the postseason via a Wild Card spot, and a 65.5 percent chance to reach October as a whole.

The Phillies didn’t do anything to separate themselves from the pack and be true World Series contenders heading into 2026, but they’re still a clear playoff contender and should be playing October baseball.

And who knows? Once a team makes it into the dance, anything can happen.

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