Yesterday we opened the discussion about the Phillies impending youth movement by asking what your expectations were for Justin Crawford. Today, we’ll discuss another one of the Phillies top prospects poised to make a major impact on the big-league club in 2026.
It’s been an unconventional path to the Majors for Andrew Painter to say the least. Once a near consensus top five prospect in all of baseball, Painter was on the verge of a Major League debut when he suffered a tear to his UCL in the spring of 2023. After originally opting to rehab the elbow, Painter eventually was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery that kept him out of all of the 2023 season and limited him to just six starts in 2024.
Painter returned in 2025 and spent the year in Triple-A while slowly rehabbing and working his way fully back from the long layoff. The results at Lehigh Valley were not pretty, as Painter had a 5.40 ERA across 106.2 IP in 22 starts. His stuff eventually began to resemble what it was prior to his injury, but his command was erratic and his fastball shape was drastically different. The velocity was there, but his arm slot was different, which caused the once elite pitch to become much more hittable as it had less movement. It’s to be determined if some more time removed from rehab and a full, normal offseason for the first time in three years will help Painter’s heater fully recapture its preinjury form or at least something close to it. For more on Painter’s fastball, make sure to read Matt Winkelman’s scouting report and breakdown of the problems Painter faces.
Nevertheless, there is an open rotation spot this spring that is Painter’s to lose. It feels as though his spot is all but guaranteed, providing he ends the spring healthy and doesn’t come out flat in spring training. The question will perhaps be revisited when Zack Wheeler is ready, but that timeline is still unknown. Regardless, Painter will be the favorite to occupy the fifth starter role as long as he is able to perform adequately.
FanGraphs’ ZIPS projection for Painter is a 4.80 ERA in 108 IP across 24 starts with 0.9 WAR. So again, using those projections as a barometer, what are your realistic expectations for Andrew Painter in 2026? Will more time off help him get back to something close to his old form? Or is he a fundamentally different pitcher now?