Like many teams, the Minnesota Twins are looking for signs of hope as they report to Spring Training. For fans who have been dragged through another quiet offseason, hope has been hard to find. However, most will place their chips on top prospect Walker Jenkins.

The fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Jenkins is already looking like a cornerstone piece for the Twins. One year ago, he was a consensus top-five prospect, ranking as high as No. 3 in MLB Pipeline’s rankings. Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony was the only player scouts were higher on, and he had a tremendous rookie season after they called him up in June.

While Jenkins has fallen to 14th in MLB Pipeline’s rankings, the hype is still there. On a team that’s projected to struggle to reach 70 wins, a Jenkins call-up could inject life into the fan base when it happens later this summer.

Still, there’s a tough path for Jenkins to become the player that Anthony was in his age-21 season, and it could frustrate fans who hope Jenkins can be a driving force in 2026.

If Twins fans want to dream, Anthony is the best-case scenario for Jenkins’s 2026 season. Coming into major league camp as a 20-year-old, Anthony was the No. 1 prospect in the game according to Baseball Prospectus and the runner-up to Roki Sasaki in Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s rankings.

There was a chance that Anthony could make the major league team out of Spring Training. However, he was caught in a logjam in the Red Sox outfield with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu locking down the starting spots. Instead of having Anthony sit on the bench as a fourth outfielder and behind designated hitter Rafael Devers, the Red Sox sent Anthony to Triple-A Worcester, where he needed just 58 games to prove he was a major leaguer.

Anthony hit the cover off the ball for the Woo Sox, slashing .288/.423/.491 with 10 homers and 29 RBI. Things went so well that national analysts joined fans’ cries for Boston to call him up. He proved them right, hitting .292/.396/.463 with eight homers, 32 RBI, and four stolen bases in 71 games and finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year Award voting after making his major league debut last June.

When looking at Walker Jenkins, Twins fans could use Roman Anthony’s 2025 season as a blueprint. Both players were high school outfielders when they were drafted and were knocking on the door of the major leagues entering their third professional season. Anthony turned 21 in May, and Jenkins will turn 21 later this month. Given the current state of the Twins, they’ll probably call him up sometime this summer.

Then again, replicating what Anthony did last season is difficult. Since the start of MLB’s divisional era in 1969, there have been 235 players who have reached the rookie eligibility requirement of 130 at-bats at age 21 or younger. Anthony’s 3.1 wins above replacement (WAR) last season ranked 35th among that group.

Only five players have been that productive at that young an age. Tom Brunansky put up 5.6 WAR playing in 127 games for the Twins at the age of 21 during the 1982 season. Butch Wynegar made his first of two straight All-Star appearances to begin his career with 3.4 WAR as a 20-year-old during the 1976 season. Rod Carew won the 1967 AL Rookie of the Year Award with a 2.8 WAR at 21 years old during the 1967 season.

There was also a strong chance that Joe Mauer could have joined this group as a 21-year-old during the 2004 season. However, while he posted 1.4 WAR, injuries limited him to 35 games. Zoilo Versalles also posted 1.3 WAR as a 21-year-old during the 1961 season, but that was his third overall season in the majors after making appearances with the Washington Senators in 1959 and 1960.

The group above has some impressive names. But they’re also the only players in Twins history who have produced over 1.0 WAR in their age-21 season or younger. Players who saw action in those seasons included Byron Buxton (0.3 WAR at age 21 in 2015), Jorge Polanco (0.2 WAR at age 20 in 2014), and David Ortiz (0.1 WAR at age 21 in 1997), but those were short stints in the majors and needed more time to make a true impact.

Furthermore, 55 players across Major League Baseball have produced a negative WAR after being called up for extended action during a rookie season at age 21 or younger. That includes a 21-year-old Cristian Guzmán in 1999, whose -2.5 WAR was the second-lowest in the group, behind José Guillén‘s -3.5 WAR in 1997 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In addition to Twins history, Walker Jenkins has seen less minor league action than Roman Anthony had entering last season. Anthony played 245 professional games entering last season and hit .344/.463/.519 with three homers and 20 RBI in 35 games at Triple-A to close the 2024 season. While Jenkins reached St. Paul at the end of last year, he hit just .242/.324/.396 with two homers and eight RBI in 23 games and has played in just 192 professional games due to quad, hamstring, and ankle injuries.

Perhaps the last part explains how Minnesota’s outfield is structured heading into camp. Buxton, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner are in starting roles, but the Twins also have James Outman and Austin Martin, who could come off the bench. Jenkins also has competition at the Triple-A level with Emmanuel Rodriguez and Alan Roden looking for major league roster spots, which could force Jenkins to sharpen his craft in St. Paul.

That doesn’t diminish the odds of a major league debut at some point this season. But it does reduce the chances that Jenkins could have a season like Anthony’s one year ago. If he’s able to break through, the Twins could have something special in their top prospect. Still, it’s more likely this is a foundational year that could help Jenkins fulfill his long-term potential.