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Chris Sale winds up for a pitch against the Diamondbacks.
The National League East is one of the toughest, most competitive divisions in Major League Baseball. With top contenders like the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets, the NL East is one of the toughest divisions to predict every season. The Braves had a run of division titles in recent memory, but the Phillies have been the top dog in the NL East in back-to-back seasons.
A recent projection site, PECOTA, released some of its annual record predictions for the 2026 season, and it seems to be favoring the Braves once again. The Braves are predicted to finish 92-70, good for 1st place in the NL East.
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Should the Braves Be Favorites to Win the NL East?
Some of the Braves’ offseason additions include: Robert Suarez, Mike Yastrzemski, Joel Payamps, and Mauricio Dubon. Atlanta also retained Raisel Iglesias, Tyler Kinley, and Ha-Seong Kim. Pair those players with some of the Braves’ core pieces (Ronald Acuña Jr, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Drake Baldwin, Chris Sale), Atlanta could very well be in a great position to win the division come July and August.
However, they will have to stay healthy, and PECOTA may not take into account Spencer Schwellenbach being sidelined for the first couple of months of the season, as that news was reported earlier today.
GettyChris Sale winds up for a pitch against the Diamondbacks.
Chris Sale certainly has the potential to anchor a starting rotation, but the surrounding starters on the Braves (Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes, Reynaldo Lopez) will have to pick up some slack in the meantime of Schwellenbach’s injury.
On top of that, the New York Mets have been one of the most active teams this MLB offseason, and the Phillies retained Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto but lost Ranger Suarez.
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Who Will Win the NL East?
The NL East is one of the closest divisions in terms of betting value. Betting lines are usually pretty emblematic of how much a future prediction like this is.
Per VegasInsider.com, the Braves, Mets, and Phillies are razor close in terms of future odds to win the NL East.
The AL East is also pretty close, but for reference, the Dodgers are overwhelming favorites to win their division, the NL West.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals are not being given much of a shot by both Vegas and PECOTA, but it’s important to note the Braves actually finished below the Marlins in the standings last season, so anything can really happen.
A full 162-game MLB season is such a marathon, and it’s hard to foresee what could happen over the six-month campaign.
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