The top of the first base pool in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts presents a fascinating contrast between proven production and explosive upside. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Nick Kurtz sit side by side in ADP, forcing fantasy managers to decide between a discounted former MVP-caliber bat and a rising star with league-winning power potential.
1B1 – Vladimir Guerrero, Toronto Blue Jays (NFBC ADP – 18)
For the fourth consecutive season, Guerrero failed to approach his breakout power year in 2021 (.311/123/48/111/4 over 604 at-bats). He continues to have a high floor in plate appearances and games played, which should create more RBI chances (over 400 in each of the past five seasons). On the downside, his average hit rate (1.599) in 2025 was a five-year low, highlighting the direction of his power (AVH – 1.931 in 2021).
Guerrero continues to have impressive floor in exit velocity (92.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (50.7%). Last year, he increased his line-drive rate (21.2%), leading to fewer groundballs (46.5%). Unfortunately, his weaker launch angle (7.8) led to a three-year low in his flyball rate (32.3%) and his lowest HR/FB rate (14.3) since his rookie season in 2019.
For a power hitter, his strikeout rate (13.8%) and walk rate (11.9%) are well above the league average. Guerrero played well against lefties (.326/25/6/24/1 over 135 at-bats) and on the road (.323/54/11/38/1 over 291 at-bats). He failed to hit over six home runs in any month last year, while being at his best after the All-Star break (.314/37/11/38/1).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. secures the fan vote as baseball’s No. 1 first baseman! https://t.co/yUcqtvI6jR pic.twitter.com/pgAojzpCZo
— MLB (@MLB) February 10, 2026Vladimir Guererro Jr. 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: Based on stats in 2025, Guerrero doesn’t have the feel of a foundation impact hitter. He finished 34th in FPGscore (3.50) for hitters, painting him as a late fourth round (15-team) or fifth round selection (12-team) this draft season with repeated results. Last year, the Blue Jays ranked fourth in runs (798) but 11th in home runs (191).
Guerrero has the tools to be an asset in three categories while chipping in with a handful of steals. His fantasy ceiling is driven by his power outcome this year – to believe or not to believe in a jump to 30+ home runs is the question each game manager must answer on draft day. I would rather buy him at a discount than fight for him in drafts. For reference, his 2024 stats ranked him as the 11th best hitter in FPGscore (6.71), with batting average (+3.53) being the most impactful category. In the end, more loft is the key to fantasy stud status.
Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz (16) stands on third base during action against the Houston Astros in the fifth inning at Sutter Health Park. | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
Over 117 games in his rookie season, Kurtz kicked in the fantasy door over his final 343 at-bats (.309/84/35/80/2). His success over his hot streak, projected over 550 at-bats, comes to 135 runs, 56 home runs, and 128 RBIs. On the downside, his strikeout rate (29.7%) hints that repeatability may not be as high in his sophomore year. He had an elite walk rate (14.1).
Kurtz opened 2025 at AAA (.321 with 18 runs, seven home runs, and 24 RBIs over 84 at-bats) before getting called up in the fourth week of April. Major league arms dominated him over his first 25 games (.233/9/4/10), highlighted by his high strikeout rate (35.1%). An oblique issue pushed him to the sidelines for 15 days in late May.
The A’s drafted Kurtz fourth overall in the 2024 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at Wake Forest, he hit .333 with 206 runs, 61 home runs, 182 RBIs, and 11 steals over 567 at-bats. He posted an elite walk rate (24.1) while also being challenging to strikeout (16.5%). Kurtz had more walks (189) and Ks (130). In his limited time in the minors (33 games), his bat (.344/34/12/40/1 over 125 at-bats) supported his breakout in power.
Kurtz checked the winning boxes in exit velocity (92.7), launch angle (15.3), hard-hit rate (50.9%), barrels (18.3), flyball rate (43.0), and HR/FB rate (30.8%). The next step in his development will come against lefties (.197/21/9/22 over 137 at-bats) and his approach. His average hit rate (2.131) has been elite at each level, while also posting an exceptional contact batting average (.454 – .432 in college).
Nick Kurtz 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Fantasy Outlook: There are a lot of moving parts in Kurtz’s short trip to stardom. His minor league resume paints an elite batting average bat and some underlying speed. He will get better at the plate in the majors with more experience. Kurtz is a player to fight for in drafts. He brings foundation power while on a path to be a perennial 100/40/120/10 player with plenty of help in batting average. Let’s go with the new Todd Helton with much more power.
Guerrero remains a safe, batting-average-driven option whose fantasy ceiling hinges almost entirely on whether his power rebounds with more loft in his swing. Kurtz, meanwhile, carries more volatility but offers the kind of rare power profile that can tilt leagues, making this a classic floor-versus-ceiling decision that depends on draft cost and roster construction. Vlad is ultimately the choice but it’s a very close one.
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