The Minnesota Twins have a win total of 73.5 entering the 2026 season, based on the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Twins Over/Under Wins 2026
Over 73.5 wins: -120
Under 73.5 wins: +100
Twins Win Total Prediction 2026
The over on the Twins’ win total (73.5) is one of my favorite predictions in the latest MLB betting market.
The perception of Minnesota is much lower than it should be entering the 2026 season, thanks in large part to a fire sale at last year’s trade deadline. The Twins traded away 10 MLB players last summer, including five relief pitchers from a bullpen that stacked up among the best in baseball.
Minnesota also moved on from Carlos Correa, reuniting him with the Houston Astros.
As a result, the Twins’ over/under has dropped by 11 wins compared to last year’s win total. But I’m not sure this team should be viewed that differently after trading away a handful of relievers and a 31-year-old infielder who posted 0.1 bWAR in Minnesota last year.
Sure, the Twins have signaled they are in rebuild mode, but even a rebuilding team can be frisky in the American League Central division.
Most public projections have the Twins clearing their lowest full-season win total since 2015. Clay Davenport projects 80 wins, while PECOTA forecasts 79.9 victories. ATC, the composite projection system available at FanGraphs, has Minnesota finishing with 79.7 wins.
In all these projections, the Twins are still viewed as third in the AL Central. Perhaps the market is baking in another potential fire sale at the trade deadline, but I’m skeptical that Minnesota would commit to that if it were in the mix in July after winning 70 games last year.
Last spring, the Twins were division favorites. I think the market has overcorrected after one down season.
Twins Win Total History
YearWin TotalWinsResult202584.570Under202486.582Under202384.587Over202282.578Under202188.573Under202034.536Over201983.5101Over20188378Under201774.585Over201679.559Under201571.583Over201470.570Under201367.566Under201273.566Under201185.563Under201083.594Over200982.587Over20087588Over200783.579Under20068096Over200587.583Under200485.592Over200387.590Over200281.594Over200172.585Over200066.569Over
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