Yesterday, Paul Toboni finally made a move in the rotation. Bringing in Miles Mikolas on a one-year $2.25 million deal is not exactly what fans were dreaming of, but it is a move. With Mikolas highly likely to be in the rotation, I wanted to take a look at what the Nats pitching staff could look like entering 2026.
While the rotation is full of uncertainty, I do think there are three locks. Those are free agent signings Foster Griffin and Miles Mikolas. The other is Cade Cavalli, who is the highest upside arm on the team. It will be an open competition for the last two spots. I think Jake Irvin will take one of them, but after how he performed last season, he is not a lock.
Brad Lord is an interesting case. He had an impressive rookie season last year, but was more effective in a relief role. In his 19 starts, Lord posted a 4.99 ERA. For 2025 Nats standards, that is not awful, but it is still not good. However, in his 29 relief outings, Lord posted a 2.79 ERA. With Lord’s increased velocity in the ‘pen and his limited pitch mix, a bullpen role could be a better fit. Still, Lord may be one of the five best guys for the Nats in the rotation.
The Nats are short on proven commodities, but they have plenty of options. Guys like Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez and even waiver claim Ken Waldichuk could get a shot to compete for rotation spots. The quality may not be great, but the Nats have more bodies than they have had in the past.
Gray is an interesting case as well. He has missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery. However, he made the All-Star game and posted a sub-4 ERA the last time he pitched a full season in 2023. Even in that season though, we saw Gray’s flaws and that sub-4 ERA was pretty lucky based on the underlying numbers. If his stuff looks good this spring, he should get a spot in the rotation though.
There are also a couple of guys on the mend that could play a role later this season. The Nats have already placed Trevor Williams and DJ Herz on the 60-day IL. This is not much of a surprise, as both are recovering from elbow surgeries.
Herz is a guy I am particularly intrigued by though. He was super promising in 2024, and was a popular breakout candidate for 2025. However, he looked bad in Spring Training last year and then it was revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery. If Herz can come back and be the guy he was in 2024, he will be a massive piece of the Nats rotation.
Herz does have some command concerns, so there is a chance the Nats just decide to let him rip in the bullpen. Luis Perales is in a similar boat, but he is further removed from his Tommy John. He should start the season in the Minors, but could play a role, either in the rotation or the bullpen.
The biggest X-factor in the Nats rotation though is Cade Cavalli. On paper, Cavalli will be the Nats ace. He showed major promise down the stretch last season. His stuff looked very sharp, and his fastball averaged 97.
Manager Blake Butera has already praised Cavalli’s mound presence. For the first time in a while, Cavalli will be entering a season with no health restrictions. He is ready to rock and roll. The 2020 first round pick is finally going to be able to be a part of the rotation on a full time basis.
I also think he is going to really be helped by the Nats new pitching philosophy. He has the stuff, but his execution and sequencing could use some work. Hopefully, new pitching coach Simon Mathews can help him out with that.
For the guys who do not make the rotation, they could still make an impact as long relief options. Paul Toboni and Blake Butera do not seem married to the idea of having a set five man rotation where the goal is for these guys to go at least five innings every time. That philosophy could make the roles of Mitchell Parker or Andrew Alvarez important.
Alvarez showed some nice things down the stretch. He does not have amazing stuff, but he has a deep mix and can throw any pitch in any count. Alvarez also has a strong feel for spin and executes well. He is a guy who can fool lineups for one or two turns, but does not have the stuff to face hitters a third time. The Nats new regime will have a use for a guy like that.
There are still more questions than answers on this Nats pitching staff, but the pickup of Mikolas does provide some clarity. The Nats now have a guy they will be confident in to take the ball every fifth day and give them some length. I also wonder if the Mikolas pickup makes Irvin a bit redundant. Last year, he was the innings eater with not great stuff. If he comes out throwing 90-92 MPH again this spring, he could be in trouble.
There is competition all across this roster. For a team that is not very good, I like that. If we can find one or two unexpected breakout guys who could be a part of the next good Nats team, that would be a win. Also, so much can change between now and even the start of the season. Buckle up ladies and gentleman, because baseball is here.