The Baltimore Orioles’ trade for Shane Baz, at the time, felt like an encouraging step in the right direction for Mike Elias and Co. No, Baz didn’t check the box of the Orioles adding a frontline starting pitcher, but he is a former first-round pick with a high upside and under control through the 2028 season.

Operating under the assumption that Baz would serve as the team’s No. 4 starter (assuming there was a larger add), the trade simply made sense. But as Orioles’ pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, it would seem that the team has much higher expectations for the 26-year-old starting pitcher.

It started with Elias stating his belief that Baltimore already had a strong rotation on paper, and first-year manager Craig Albernaz took it a step further. Albernaz didn’t hesitate in placing Cy Young expectations on Baz.

“Shane Baz’s upside is a Cy Young Award winner,” Albernaz said. “He still has the same elite stuff. it’s just allowing him to be a better version of himself. Shane is a competitor and a great worker.”

Shane Baz has a high upside but the Orioles may be placing too much confidence in his potential for 2026

Albernaz isn’t entirely wrong. Baz has flashed the potential of being a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and it will be up to the Orioles to maximize that.

But that overlooks the reality of Baz’s current situation. He only has one season where he’s made 30 starts, and when he was last on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, he posted a 4.87 ERA in over 166 innings pitched. Along those lines, if the Rays, of all organizations, were willing to put an end to the Baz experiment, that should be a cautionary tale.

The hope is that the Orioles understand that having confidence in Baz shouldn’t be the reason they ignore the need they’ve had all offseason for a frontline starting pitcher. Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander are off the market, thanks to the Detroit Tigers, and it didn’t seem like Zac Gallen is headed to Baltimore.

None of that was justification for the Orioles deciding to hand over $18 million to Chris Bassitt, but alas, here we are.

Baz becoming a real dude would certainly be one of the best-case scenarios of the 2026 season. But, at this moment, the hope from the Orioles feels like a classic case of deflection, overlooking the fact that they didn’t accomplish one of their stated priorities of the offseason.