In case you somehow missed it, the Brewers sent all of their third base depth to the Red Sox in exchange for a pair of southpaw pitchers and infielder David Hamilton. It raised some eyebrows, but aside from the now-crowded rotation, Milwaukee’s bigger roster issue was that they needed a third baseman.
Luis Rengifo was the answer to the prayers of Brewers fans, although they must not have dared dream terribly big. He was just one of several names on a long list of underwhelming third base options on this year’s free-agent market, and the lack of demand is unsurprising. In 2025, he posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR over 541 plate appearances. So what is Milwaukee expecting to get out of him?
When looking at his broader body of work, it’s clear that he does have some redeeming qualities. He was a respectable contributor to the Angels lineup from 2022 to 2024, accumulating 4.9 fWAR and posting a 111 wRC+ over those three seasons. The key to that success was a low strikeout rate of 16.3% and a whiff rate that was consistently better than average. His 2024 was promising, especially given his outstanding results against four-seam fastballs (.412 BA, .529 SLG).Â
Even in 2025, a year that saw him reach a new nadir for offensive production in a full season, his contact skills remained above average. Although he doesn’t strike out much, he does have a propensity to chase pitches and rarely takes free passes, having a walk rate of just 6.8% over the course of his career.
The piece that he clearly lacks in his offensive game is quality of contact. His average exit velocity is consistently in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters, and given his small frame, that’s no surprise. Still, we’ve seen players like Isaac Paredes and Brendan Donovan overcome low exit velocities by pulling the ball in the air consistently or squaring up balls at an elite rate. Sadly, Rengifo does neither.Â
Outside of 2022, Rengifo pulls the ball in the air roughly 13% of the time, well below the MLB average of 16.7%. He squares the ball up at an average rate, but is held back by his low bat speed and suboptimal launch angles.
Funnily enough, his hitting profile resembles that of Caleb Durbin. Both players are better at making contact than hitting the ball with authority, although based on last year’s numbers alone, Durbin is more extreme in both aspects and pulls the ball in the air far more often.
Although his offensive profile has similarities to Durbin, they couldn’t be more different defensively. Durbin was an above-average defender at third last season, posting 5 Defensive Runs Saved; Rengifo managed just -5 DRS. Originally brought up as a second baseman, he fared much better when playing closer to first base. He doesn’t have the strongest or most accurate arm, leading to plenty of poorly thrown balls to first base.
He also lacked range at third base, especially when moving laterally toward first base. This limited his defensive production, particularly against right-handed batters.
Given all of his flaws, it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that the Brewers clearly downgraded. There simply isn’t a lot on paper to write home about. Furthermore, they’re paying him $3.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives. Even $5 million isn’t much by the standards of this time and this industry, but it’s definitely more than what they would’ve had to give Durbin, so what’s going on?
First, it’s important to recognize that Rengifo is mostly a stopgap. The Brewers’ top four prospects (Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Jett Williams, and Cooper Pratt) are all infielders. Williams and Pratt are expected to be called up this season, while Made and Peña will be knocking on the door within a year or two. It would’ve been foolish to commit any more cash or prospect capital to acquiring a more capable third baseman, since Rengifo may not even occupy the top spot on the depth chart for very long.
Second, the Brewers could be more excited about what they can do with Rengifo than what he’s already demonstrated at the big-league level. If the Crew can improve Rengifo’s swing decisions the same way they improved Andrew Vaughn‘s last summer, it would make a world of difference, in his profile as much as anyone else’s. His career year, 2023, was also the year he walked 9.2% of the time.
Third, and most importantly, the Brewers probably don’t see as great a difference between Durbin and Rengifo as most of their fans perceive—if any, at all. While what happened last feels most urgent and relevant, that’s not always true. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system projects Rengifo to bat .255/.313/.394 in 419 plate appearances this year. It projects Durbin to hit .253/.330/.375. If you bump Rengifo up to his 60th-percentile projection (.258/.316/.401) and pull Durbin down to his 40th-percentile one (.250/.327/.369), Rengifo becomes a more valuable player.
That implies about a 1-in-4 chance that Rengifo is the better player this year, and another 20% chance that they’re virtually a coin toss. Durbin has long-term team control remaining, which makes him more valuable than Rengifo, but because the team has all that organizational infield depth, the ability to retain Durbin for the long haul wasn’t worth all that much. Thus, it made sense for them to cash in Durbin and pick up Rengifo instead, given all the controllable, high-upside pitching depth they got in the exchange. They didn’t choose Rengifo over Durbin; they chose Rengifo, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan over Durbin.
Even if it doesn’t work out, Milwaukee has enough infield flexibility to make things work. Pat Murphy has gone on record to say that he doesn’t want to move Joey Ortiz off of shortstop and back to the hot corner, but it could happen if Rengifo, Jett Williams, and Hamilton are unable to do the job.
In recent years, the Brewers have made countless trades that were questionable at first, only to end up turning water to wine. They’re one of the most cunning front offices, and any moves they make must have compelling reasons under the hood. Rengifo is not the third baseman of the future, and he may not even be the third baseman of the present, but he gives the team something to work with in spring training. Either way, don’t count him out yet. Milwaukee may still have yet another ace up their sleeve.