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Billy Carlson (Tracy Proffitt/Four Seam Images)
On the heels of the 2025 Bowman Draft release that is still making waves across the hobby, and with Bowman’s Best on its way, we’ve been presented with an opportunity to go a little bit deeper on why certain players are selling really well on secondary markets and why those same players maybe weren’t the focal point of our Bowman Draft deep dive.
Of course, prospect collecting is driven by speculation. And if there’s anything that real-world scouting, dynasty fantasy sports and sports card collectors can agree on, it’s the appeal of a player with a perennial all-star pedigree or a Hall of Fame ceiling.
But an early draft pick does not necessarily correlate with that kind of upside. Nor does it necessarily correlate with the kind of statistical prowess that might make a player desirable in the baseball card world in the long run.
With that in mind, we’re taking a closer look at some first-round picks from 2025 who are currently very coveted in Bowman Draft but whose long-term value to collectors is a little more clouded.
We’ll focus on players who have initially appeared in Bowman Draft. In the past few years, notable players like Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll have broken through the speculation fog into the full-blown investment opportunities. Pirates shortstop and No. 1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin is also knocking on that door. So, what do those four players have in common? They’re all position players with real power, real speed and real minor league production who debuted (or will debut) sometime between 19-22 years old.
So, here are six first-rounders who, despite selling well during the 2025 Bowman Draft season, are prospects we would advise potentially pumping the brakes on—at least for now.
Eli Willits, SS, Nationals
2025 Draft Pick: 1st
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $190-$210
Caution Level For Collectors: Moderate
Willits was selected first overall in the 2025 MLB Draft and was particularly attractive due to being the youngest player in the draft, having a track record of an exceptional hit tool and having a good chance to stick at shortstop. While all of that may be true, it’s important to temper some expectations here.
Willits does not have the physical gifts of a Konnor Griffin or a Gunnar Henderson. Rather, he is more like Jackson Holliday or Jackson Merrill. That said, I think the Nationals would be ecstatic with a Merrill-type outcome for Willits. He should debut young and play for a long time, but he is still a prep prospect who carries a bit more risk and doesn’t have the gaudy ceiling to fall back on.
I wouldn’t expect the value of his cards to fall too far from where they currently are in the next few years, but Willits wouldn’t be my recommendation for a “lock it in a time capsule” type purchase.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Pirates
2025 Draft Pick: 6th
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $120-$170
Caution Level For Collectors: Extreme
The level of success that Reds righthander Hunter Greene has achieved after being the second-overall pick in 2017 out of high school would be an exceptional outcome for Hernandez. A 2018 Bowman Chrome base first auto of Greene graded 10 by PSA only set back a recent buyer $100. You can get numbered color autos in ungraded fashion for even less. So, dishing out $130 or more for Hernandez’s base first auto is an extreme overpay. As good as he can be, I would find it really hard to justify spending that much money on a base auto for a righthanded prep pitcher.
The Pirates have a scary new addition 👀
Seth Hernandez posted a 0.39 ERA in his senior year of high school. Skenes? 0.33 🤯
Seth’s 1st Bowman autograph card will arrive in 2025 Bowman Draft on January 14 🗓️ pic.twitter.com/B2ZWAnvbJ5
— Topps (@Topps) December 29, 2025
Billy Carlson, SS, White Sox
2025 Draft Pick: 10th
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $60-$75
Caution Level For Collectors: High
Carlson’s defense is his calling card. Unlike collectors, MLB teams place a premium on high-probability shortstop defense in the draft. Carlson isn’t particularly big or projectable and may never threaten a 20-20 season, but if he plays plus defense at shortstop and hits .240 for a decade, that’s a huge real-world draft win for the White Sox.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Nationals (Round 1, Pick 12)
2025 Draft Pick: 12th (via the Rangers)
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $30-$40
Caution Level For Collectors: Moderate
The Rangers took Fien 12th overall and have since shipped him to Washington in the deal for MacKenzie Gore. Fien is known for an exceptional hit tool and a propensity for pulling the ball in the air. He is not, however, known for being a burner, big power bat or premium defender. Fien is going to hit, and he’s going to optimize his contact, but before you pull the trigger on that Fien card you’ve been tracking, ask yourself how you would feel if he ends up as a first baseman who hits 15-25 home runs, because that would be a solid real-world outcome here.
Kayson Cunningham, SS, Diamondbacks
2025 Draft Pick: 18th
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $20-$30
Caution Level For Collectors: High
Cunningham can really hit and he can really run. Unfortunately, there is a slim-to-no chance he plays shortstop and an even slimmer chance he adds any strength to his pint-sized frame. There are a lot of reasons to believe that Cunningham will play this game for a long time, but his size and lack of power significantly limit his long-term value to collectors.
Tate Southisene, SS, Braves
2025 Draft Pick: 22nd
2025 Bowman Draft Base Auto: Trending around $20-$30
Caution Level For Collectors: Extreme
For the hobby crowd, this is a pretty clear player to avoid unless you’re a niche Braves collector. Southisene is small, has limited power and has questions about his hit tool. All it takes is one team to like a high-risk prep bat and believe that he’s going to stay at shortstop to make a first-round draft pick. And while that could happen, I would set pretty low odds that Southisene’s cards ever go higher than they are right now.