If you merely consult a spreadsheet that shows the guaranteed dollars for which the Chicago Cubs are on the hook, you might think that they’ve walked right up to the competitive-balance tax threshold, but declined to step over the line. If that were true, it would be a complication for them, as they stare down two key decisions this spring: whether to put non-roster free-agent signing Michael Conforto on the Opening Day roster (thus guaranteeing him $2 million), and whether to extend star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Frustrating though it might (rightfully) be to many fans, the CBT line is a real and important factor in teams’ decision-making. All teams have budgets, and those budgets aren’t technically anchored to the CBT line, but going over the line (especially in consecutive seasons) means higher costs, draft-pick and international free agency penalties. It has to be part of the calculation about marginal spending whenever a team is hovering near the line between not being a payer and being one, or between two of the several thresholds at which penalties and tax rates rise.

Here’s the thing, though: the Cubs are already over the tax line. It’s not that close, either. They have not only Conforto, but a handful of other experienced non-roster invitees in camp, from outfielders Chas McCormick and Dylan Carlson to relievers like Trent Thornton and Kyle Wright. Christian Bethancourt, who’s likely to go to Triple-A Iowa if both Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya are healthy at the end of camp, will make $1.6 million if added to the big-league roster at some point to backfill because of injuries. Any dollar over the league minimum earned by any of the above pushes the Cubs closer to (or, in actuality, well past) the line, since they’re currently just under $500,000 below the threshold.

Even if none of those players makes the roster and the team rolls with guys who play for the minimum (say, Kevin Alcántara and Ryan Rolison), though, they’re going to end up over the line. Kelly and Matthew Boyd signed two-year deals last winter that included up to $500,000 per year in performance bonuses based on playing time, and each maxed out those bonuses in 2025. It’s unlikely they’ll do so again in 2026, but they’ll get another $200,000 or more from the team based on those clauses. Then, the team signed five free-agent relievers this winter to deals that include substantial performance bonuses. Hunter Harvey, alone, can earn over $1 million in bonuses. Phil Maton, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner can each earn about $250,000 more than their base salaries. 

Those guys won’t max out their earning power, but to push the Cubs over the line, none of them has to. In some wild scenario in which none of those bonuses have to be paid, the team will be in scramble mode early, and will end up spnding money on someone else to patch holes in their pitching staff. No, the Cubs are already over the CBT line. That’s good news.

With the CBT not really an active consideration (but the second threshold a solid $12-15 million in guarantees away), the Cubs could go scoop up another starter before the season starts, to bolster a strong but injury-shadowed starting rotation. They can also freely negotiate with Crow-Armstrong, who sounds very interested in a long-term deal with the club. Signing him for the long haul would earn the team tons of good will with their fans, and they’d also have cost certainty for the next handful of years, rather than risking his salary skyrocketing via arbitration.

Locking up Crow-Armstrong would mean giving him a boost in salary ahead of schedule, albeit a modest one, in 2026. It would also mean a signing bonus, which would be spread over the life of the deal but would be a cost incurred up front. Crow-Armstrong’s CBT hit would rise sharply, because it would reflect the annual average value of the deal. That’s why not having to think about staying below that line matters. Last season, the Cubs couldn’t seriously consider any expensive extensions, because they didn’t have clearance to surpass the CBT threshold or the breathing room to increase their number at the last second. Things are much more conducive to that kind of spending this spring.

One way or another, the Cubs probably aren’t done spending money this offseason. Be it a team-friendly extension for a young player or a market-rate one to keep one of Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki from becoming free agents in November, there will be lots of conversations around the team’s existing players—and there’s still room to spend a bit on more pitching help, if they decide that they need it.