Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha Impress in Different Ways in 2026 WBC Debuts – Royals

Baseball fans saw the first full day of World Baseball Classic competition on Friday, and the Royals were well-represented. Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia made starts for Team Venezuela, as did Bobby Witt Jr. for Team USA. Furthermore, Luinder Avila threw two innings of relief for Venezuela in their 6-2 win over the Netherlands (see below for a summary of his outing via TJ Stats). 

However, the two biggest Royals standouts in Friday’s World Baseball Classic slate were Seth Lugo for Puerto Rico and Michael Wacha for the United States. Lugo made the start for Puerto Rico in their 5-0 win over Colombia and went four innings in the winning effort. As for Wacha, he pitched in relief but went three innings and collected five strikeouts for the United States.

Let’s review Lugo and Wacha’s efforts individually, and what Royals fans can take away from their first outings in WBC pool play. 

Lugo Gives Vintage Performance

The 36-year-old righty will be a key pitcher to the Royals’ divisional and postseason chances in 2026.

In his first season in Kansas City in 2024, Lugo pitched 206.2 innings and made 33 starts. In that sample, he posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and finished second in the AL Cy Young race. With Cole Ragans at the top of the rotation, he helped the Royals win 86 games and make it to the ALDS against the Yankees. 

Unfortunately, things regressed for Lugo in 2025. In 26 starts and 145.1 IP, he posted an ERA of 4.15, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 5.20 xERA, the latter being his worst mark in that category since his 5.45 xERA in his rookie year in 2016. He was also shut down at the end of the year due to a lower back strain. However, despite those issues, the Royals opted to bring him back instead of trading him at the Trade Deadline, inking him to a two-year, $46 million extension on July 29th.

My biggest concern with Lugo was his curveball, which was a weapon for him in 2024 but less effective in 2025. In his first year in Kansas City, he posted a whiff rate of 33.6%, a put-away rate of 28.6%, and an xwOBA of .240 on the curve. Last season? He posted a whiff rate of 25.9%, a put-away rate of 20.4%, and an xwOBA of .308. He also showed some differences in TJ Stuff+ and chase from 2024 to 2025, not just on his curveball, but other key pitches (especially of the breaking variety). 

Lugo has shown some strong progress in Spring Training. In two outings and 5.0 IP in Cactus League play, he had a 3.60 ERA, 1.60 ERA with three runs allowed on eight hits. However, he has struck out five while not allowing a single walk. 

While that’s encouraging, Cactus League competition isn’t always the best indicator of a pitcher’s progress, especially for veterans who are more concerned with process than results at this time of the year. That said, the WBC is a different animal, especially with players more invested in the wins and losses in this competition. 

Lugo was not only named to Puerto Rico’s team, but was also named the starter for Game 1 of pool play. That’s the equivalent of being named the Opening Day starter in this context, which shows both the trust and the pressure on Lugo, especially with Puerto Rico hosting Pool A (which includes Puerto Rico, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, and Panama). 

The Royals righty stepped up and delivered a vintage performance: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, on 62 pitches. Here’s what his summary looked like from his WBC outing via TJ Stats. 

Lugo didn’t generate a ton of whiffs (24% whiff rate) or chase (15.6% chase rate). He also struggled with strike-zone consistency, as evidenced by his two walks and 48.4% zone rate. However, his overall TJ Stuff+ metrics were solid. He had a 99 TJ Stuff+ overall and sported four pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (slurve, curveball, slider, and sweeper). Colombian hitters also struggled with making hard contact, as they produced an xwOBACON of .228. 

It was the kind of pitch-diverse and effective outing that Royals fans have grown to appreciate from Lugo in his two years in Kansas City. 

I was curious to see how his breaking stuff fared in his outing against Colombia. Based on the pitch description chart of his breaking pitches via Savant, he did an excellent job of not just generating strikes but keeping hitters off balance. H

Based on his pitch chart from Savant, he produced five called strikes and five swinging strikes on breaking offerings. He also gave up just one hit, which was a swinging-bunt by Harold Ramirez with an exit velocity of 49.8 MPH. Honestly, based on the location of Lugo’s offering, it’s incredible that Ramirez even made contact on the pitch.

It wasn’t a dominant performance, and Colombia didn’t exactly have a “stellar” lineup (the light-hitting Donovan Solano was their cleanup hitter). That said, Lugo showed the kind of pitch diversity and crafty approach that has made him an effective starting pitcher over the past three years (two with Kansas City and one with San Diego). If Lugo can continue to pitch like this in the regular season, Royals fans will certainly be satisfied, as he likely would produce a stat line closer to his 2024 self than his 2025 version. 

Wacha Shows Strikeout Stuff Against Brazil

Logan Webb set the tone for Team USA in their opener in pool play. The Giants ace went 4.0 IP and allowed one run on one hit while walking zero and striking out six. His lone run came on a Lucas Ramirez home run in the first inning. Ramirez is the son of the legendary Manny Ramirez. 

Wacha came in relief for Webb and got off to a blazing start. He struck out the side in the bottom of the fifth, and struck out two of three in the bottom of the sixth (he did give up a leadoff single). Unfortunately, Wacha got into some trouble in the seventh. He gave up two singles and a wild pitch (with the wild pitch setting up an RBI single by Brazil’s Lucas Rojo). He then gave up a two-run home run to outfielder Victor Mascai to make it 7-4 at the time.

Thus, it was a bit of a whimper of a finish for Wacha in his 2026 WBC debut. However, that shouldn’t downplay his overall performance, especially in terms of its impact on his outlook for the Royals in 2026.

The stuff from Wacha seemed pretty typical based on his TJ Stat summary. However, what particularly stood out from Wacha was the high chase and whiff rates in his Friday outing.

Wacha posted an overall TJ Stuff+ of 99 with three pitches sporting a TJ Stuff+ of 100 or over (four-seamer, slider, and cutter). He relied heavily on his four-seamer and changeup, throwing those pitches 46.2% and 30.8% of the time, respectively. He was effective in generating chase with both pitches, as he produced a 50% chase rate with the four-seamer and 71.4% chase with the changeup. 

Here’s a look, via Savant’s pitch chart data, at how his four-seamer fared in terms of results. 

Wacha flooded the zone with his four-seamer. That is evidenced not only by his pitch chart above but also by his 66.7% zone rate. He probably threw it too much in the middle, which had mixed results. He generated two called strikes and two whiffs with the four-seamer. However, he also gave up four base hits, including two that resulted in runs. 

Here’s a look at the four-seamer that Mascai went yard on in the seventh inning, which was thrown in the bottom of the strike zone.

It’s likely that Wacha was hoping to blow the fastball by Mascai in that area, especially after throwing a changeup on the first pitch in that same part of the strike zone. Unfortunately, Mascai seemed to be sitting on it, though it wasn’t particularly hit THAT hard, as illustrated by the exit velocity data (he benefitted from the Crawford Boxes in right field). 

Thus, the four-seamer had mixed results, especially as he got into the seventh. That said, his changeup was highly effective throughout his outing. The changeup sported a 71.4% chase rate, 57.1% whiff rate, and .160 xwOBACON. He also located it effectively, keeping it low in the zone so that hitters couldn’t do much with it, even if they made contact on the offspeed offering. 

That pitch chart is what Royals fans want to see from Wacha’s changeup, which is his best pitch. Not only did he generate two called strikes in the zone with the pitch, but he also got them to chase five times on the offspeed pitch. Four of those five swings were whiffs, with the other being a foul ball. 

To be fair, this Brazilian lineup isn’t anything special. After all, Dante Bichette Jr. is in the lineup, and he hasn’t played organized ball since 2019. Nonetheless, Wacha did what one would want to see in a preseason warmup, especially in a more pressure-packed WBC environment. He attacked hitters, showed good stuff, and produced above-average results. 

Wacha has arguably been the Royals’ most dependable starter over the past two years. He pitched 166.2 IP in 2024 and 172.2 IP in 2025. He posted ERA marks of 3.35 and 3.86 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 

Last night demonstrated that the 34-year-old veteran righty could produce another sub-4.00 ERA and 150+ IP season in 2026.