When healthy, Hunter Harvey has consistently demonstrated the ability to dominate big-league batters. He has a 3.11 career ERA and has struck out 26.8% of the hitters he’s faced. However, good health never seems to last long for him, which made him available relatively cheaply this winter. The Cubs pounced, signing him to a deal worth $6 million in guaranteed money and up to $1.375 million more in incentives. It wasn’t a minor deal; that’s a significant outlay for a team that rarely ponies up for relievers.

Harvey didn’t allow an earned run in any of his 12 appearances last year, but making only 12 appearances tells the story. Strains of his teres major (a back/shoulder muscle) and adductor (groin) cost him all but about a month in the middle of the season. They also cut into his raw stuff a bit. Harvey hit 98 miles per hour or higher on the radar gun 60 times in a much healthier 2024; he didn’t get there at all in 2025.

This spring, the fully healthy version of Harvey has reported for duty. On Wednesday, he averaged 98.1 miles per hour with his heater, and threw four of his six heaters at 98 or higher. That much velocity makes him a nightmare for opposing batters.

To be fair, Wednesday’s game was Harvey’s first time on a Cactus League mound since Mar. 1. He’d been working in side sessions in between, but the long layoff probably helped him ramp up the velocity the way he did. Nor is his splitter showing the depth that makes it a bat-misser so far. His slider has been solid, but not spectacular. If he can sustain anything close to this kind of heat, though, he’s going to be the dominant setup man to closer Daniel Palencia for as much of the season as he can hold up for.

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If Harvey can stay healthy and maintain this velocity over a substantial chunk of the season, he’ll probably meet most of the incentive thresholds in his contract—because that version of Harvey would also get plenty of chances to close games as the season wears on. For now, it’s only wise to modulate expectations. Harvey is healthy and firing on all cylinders right now, but that can change at a moment’s notice. On balance, we should still expect Phil Maton to be the best setup man on the team, despite Harvey’s demonstrated upside. However, spring is about optimistic stories like this. 

It’s not just velocity. Harvey’s fastball has impressive shape, too, with rising action and a bit less run than it showed last year. His secondaries still have to fall into line, and he has to pass the daily test of availability over a long season. If he were a good bet to do that, given the stuff he’s flashing already in mid-March, he would not have been available at anywhere near as good a price as the Cubs got on him. Still, the proof of concept represented by an outing like Wednesday’s is cause for celebration. The Cubs’ bullpen will be a key to their efforts to topple the mighty Milwaukeeans in the NL Central; Harvey looks ready to lead the charge.