In a move that drew little fanfare, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen made a subtle change to the batting order. He moved Xander Bogaerts from the bottom of the lineup to the leadoff spot and Fernando Tatis Jr. to the middle of the order.
The Padres are seeking better run production from the lineup in 2026. The manager wants a leadoff hitter who has a high on-base percentage and can put himself in scoring position to maximize the lineup’s run-producing potential. Bogaerts fits the criteria, as he is a high-contact hitter with a career .350 OBP and stole a career-high 25 bases last season.
Leadoff hitters were once catalysts for an offense
Historically, the prototypical major league leadoff hitter was a catalyst for their team to get off to a good start in games. They reached base either by a base hit or drawing a walk because of good plate discipline.
It forced a starting pitcher to throw his entire repertoire during the course of the at-bat. Taking pitches allows their teammates to gauge how a pitcher is throwing before their initial plate appearance. Once at first base, a leadoff hitter must use their speed to put themselves in scoring position for the middle-of-the-order hitters.
Some of the best examples of this type of leadoff hitter are Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock and Ichiro Suzuki.
Speed no longer required to leadoff
However, in today’s analytical-driven sport, baseball has shifted the definition of a leadoff hitter. Managers want them to maximize their team’s first at-bats with proven hitters. Instead of a speedy table setter, the focus is now on finding a leadoff hitter with power and discipline.
The advanced metrics show Bogaerts fits the bill, as he has a consistent contact rate at 80% and an above-average career strikeout rate at 18% heading into the 2026 campaign. Stammen recognized that he averages at least four pitches before Bogaerts puts the ball in play. Having his batting acumen at the top of the lineup should jump-start the Friars’ offense.
By all signs in Spring Training, the move to the leadoff spot should offer a resurgence for Bogaerts at the plate. The projected numbers for him are a .272 batting average with a .331 OPS this season. It demonstrates that Bogaerts can make the transition from the lower third to the top of the order.
The Padres manager believes a consistent contact hitter is the right approach for the leadoff spot of the batting order. Bogaerts can draw walks, put the ball in play, and occasionally hit the ball out of the park.
Stammen expects the current look of the Friars’ lineup to score runs, but it all begins at the top.