Their vaunted rotation-fronting trio was to be foundational for Minnesota’s hopes of fielding an unlikely contender this year. When Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are healthy and on their games, it’s hard to discount this team.

Unfortunately, López went down with a season-ending elbow injury on the first day of spring training. Ryan and Ober were slow to get going in the first half of camp, and both have question marks attached to them entering their second-to-last seasons under team control. It’s unclear which version of Ober we’re going to get this year, and whether Ryan will still be a Twin after the deadline.

These factors increase the urgency for the next wave of pitching talent to firmly establish itself in the major leagues. It is going to be the central storyline of this season, with major implications for the team’s ability to compete in 2026 and contend for a championship down the road.

TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Projected Rotation: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel
Depth: Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, David Festa
Prospects: Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, Riley Quick

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 16th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 14th out of 30

THE GOOD
The Twins have invested heavily in turning their pitching pipeline into a strength. They used high draft picks on Connor Prielipp, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto and Riley Quick. They targeted Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas in high-profile deadline trades. Several of those pitchers on the verge of joining the MLB rotation mix, if not on already in it. Others are rising fast through the minors and garnering acclaim.

It’s an exciting group. Woods Richardson has proven himself as at least a solid big-league starter, and his strong finish last year hinted at more to unlock. Bradley undoubtedly has more to unlock as a former top prospect who hasn’t quite pulled it all together, but is still only 24. Rojas and Abel have commanded attention with their performances in camp, and the latter is angling for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

 

Abel is competing for that spot against Zebby Matthews, who was conversely not acquired via any ambitious investment, but rather through savvy drafting and development. He’s gone from eighth-round draft pick to potentially entrenching himself in the major-league rotation if he can stay healthy and find consistency. 

Much like Bradley, Rojas and Abel, Matthews has frontline-caliber stuff and that’s plain to see. Same goes for David Festa, who will hopefully be able to rebound from a shoulder setback and contribute. This deep assortment of promising arms could give the Twins a big advantage when facing lesser fourth and fifth starters for other clubs.

The top of the rotation took a major hit with the loss of López, but in such a scenario, few teams could turn to an alternative No. 1 starter as good as Ryan. He’s coming off an All-Star season at age 29. This year, only 11 AL starters are projected for a higher fWAR than Ryan’s 3.1. The right-hander was slowed out of the gates in camp by a minor back tweak, but threw three innings in his spring debut last week and went four in a crisp outing on Monday.

Minnesota projects as a middle-of-the-pack team for starting pitching. If some of these young starters and post-hype prospects take real steps forward, they can easily finish a lot higher. The front office is counting on just that.

THE BAD
In a recent survey, MLB coaches and executives were asked to name the best teams at pitching acquisition and development. The Twins received only four votes, ranking near the bottom. That’s not what we were hoping for after seven years of Derek Falvey’s leadership. 

 

For all the talk of his pitching specialization, and all the success stories we’ve seen sort of start to materialize, not that many panned out under Falvey. Injuries have ravaged the pitching pipeline. Guys like Matthews and Festa, who rose to prominence as prospects, have stalled out in their entry to the majors. And the Twins are taking on several more similarly intriguing but unfinished projects that other orgs more or less gave up on in Bradley, Abel and Rojas. 

Jeremy Zoll now leads baseball ops for the Twins, but otherwise the faces are mostly the same. Pete Maki survived a coaching shakeup and still runs the pitching staff. These guys need to buck the trend and turn some young arms into actual difference-makers in the MLB rotation.

Past successes are already starting to fade from the picture. López will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in his final season under contract. Ryan seems somewhat unlikely to make it past this trade deadline as a Twin. And Ober saw a dramatic drop-off last year due to a velocity loss that shows no sign of being resolved.

 

No doubt these emerging arms entering the fold can be good. They just haven’t been good yet. Bradley has a 4.86 career ERA, including 6.61 with the Twins last year. Able has a 6.23 career ERA (8.36 with Twins). Matthews and Festa haven’t turned the corner, with ERAs over five. Rojas has yet to find success in Triple-A. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding.

THE BOTTOM LINE
This is going to be a transitional year for the Twins rotation. The younger starters have a chance to stake their claims and position this unit for a bright future, but they need to stay healthy and turn promise into results. Up until now, none have really been able to do it on the big-league stage.

I don’t want to say “now or never” for them because they’ve all got time left to figure things out, but if several don’t do it now, the Twins will never have a chance in 2026.

Catch up on the rest of our roster preview series: