DUNEDIN, Fla. — There’s another level to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he goes from very good to a daunting destroyer. Lately, in the biggest moments, he’s found it.
The same Guerrero who tore through the 2025 postseason, hitting eight homers in 18 games on a path to a pennant, reappeared in the World Baseball Classic. He hit .444 with eight RBI in five tournament games. For the Dominican Republic, Guerrero flashed the same chest slaps and spiked bats that punctuated his postseason homers. That’s the next level.
Guerrero, who returned to Jays camp Wednesday, has silenced the narrative that he can’t perform in big games. Over the past six months, his ceiling has become undeniable. Now, the question is if that elevated performance can persist for longer stretches, or if it’s saved exclusively for big games. The Jays may need more of his best.
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“Try to bottle that up a little bit,” manager John Schneider said early in spring. “How can you be that force for 162 before you get into the postseason?”
It’s worth acknowledging that we’re talking about just 23 great games — 18 last postseason and five in the WBC. Sometimes players get hot for a couple of weeks. Nico Hoerner hit .419 in October, and Ezequiel Tovar hit .471 in the WBC. Nobody expects them to carry that into Opening Day. But Guerrero didn’t just luck into improved outcomes on the big stages. Hits didn’t just happen to find grass. He was different.
The 27-year-old’s average exit velocity went from 92 mph last regular season to 93.1 in the playoffs and then 101.5 at the WBC. He swung the bat faster and barreled up more pitches compared to the regular season. He also chased less and walked at a higher rate. Guerrero was better in almost every way.
Toronto’s franchise first baseman, signed to a $500 million contract last spring, has shown this level before. He led the American League in on-base percentage, slugging, runs and homers in 2021. He hit .333 with a .943 OPS last July, putting him among the league’s MVP candidates for a month. The challenge now is reaching that level more consistently — bringing the big stage to April homestands and August road trips.
“I think it’s just a lot of self-motivation at this point,” Schneider said. “Not saying that every game is like that. I think games in May, in the rain, in wherever, Cleveland, may feel a little bit different than the WBC does or the World Series. So hopefully it’s just kind of leaning into what he’s been through and saying, ‘How can I recreate this a little?’”
It’s noticeable to those who know Guerrero best. Schneider, ahead of last postseason, sat in his office and insisted to reporters that the first baseman appeared locked in. He said he could tell from the way Guerrero walked through the clubhouse and sat in hitters’ meetings. Then the Dominican hammered his way through October. He looked the same, Schneider said, at the WBC.
Guerrero doesn’t see those hot stretches as unique. His confidence never wavered, he said Wednesday, adding that he focuses on getting better each day.
“I don’t think playing an extra month in the playoffs, or a tournament like this, will dictate how my career is going to be,” Guerrero said through team interpreter Hector Lebron, “or how I’m going to end up doing.”
But the Jays, especially after the loss of Bo Bichette this winter, may need the elevated version of Guerrero more often. Bichette led the Blue Jays in RBI and high-leverage OPS last year. There is a void that needs to be filled, and Guerrero is perhaps the only Jay who could do it himself. He certainly did it in October, when Bichette was out until the World Series.
The Jays aren’t asking Guerrero to hit .450 for 162 games. They’re not asking him to carry his 72-homer pace over from October, either. There’s plenty of offensive upside in the lineup, still. George Springer hit like a near-MVP last year. Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho continue trading homers in spring. But in a loaded AL East, a few more June homers or July wins could be the difference between a division title, wild-card round or narrow playoff miss. Guerrero can supply those.
Early in spring, Schneider said that Bichette’s departure to the New York Mets was an opportunity for Guerrero to be a louder voice in the clubhouse. It’s an opportunity, or perhaps an obligation, to be a greater force in the lineup, too. With his performance on baseball’s biggest stages, it’s clear that Guerrero can reach that level.
Jose Berríos injury update
Berríos has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow, Schneider said Wednesday morning. Berríos will start the season on the injured list. The manager called the diagnosis a “relatively good report” after Berríos met with orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister in Texas.
A bone issue in Berríos’ throwing elbow certainly sounds scary, but the righty doesn’t feel any pain, Schneider said, and could resume throwing in the next few days.
The Jays’ Opening Day rotation is fairly clear now, with Berríos and Shane Bieber both starting the season on the IL. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Max Scherzer are rotation locks if they remain healthy over the next week. Trey Yesavage, though he hasn’t yet appeared in a spring game or thrown more than 35 pitches in a minor-league contest, could open the season as the fifth starter, with Eric Lauer eating innings behind him. It’s enough pitching for now. But, as this spring has shown, rotation options can thin out fast.