The Phillies won another series over the weekend, their third straight and the second against a potential playoff team. It was a promising six-game homestand in which the Phils went 4-2 and saw their offense begin to slug the ball with a little more regularity. The bullpen largely pitched pretty well and most of the starters did their thing effectively, too.

With an off-day Monday, the Phillies now get ready for a little Interleague play, with a pair of three-game series against the Rays in Tampa and the Guardians in Cleveland. With a chance to breathe, there were some items from the weekend that I thought were notable for discussion.

I Was Wrong About Max Kepler

I was feeling pretty good about my pessimistic view of the Phillies’ left fielder, right up until the last 10 days. Kepler has gotten hot, to a degree I didn’t believe possible.

Overall, Kepler is batting .262/.339/.467 on the season, with a 122 wRC+, five homers, 11 RBIs, 18 runs scored and seven doubles. Since the Mets series in New York on April 21, he’s batting .342/.395/.711 with a 197 wRC+, four dingers and seven RBIs.

While it is true the team tried to sell us a bill of goods on Kepler as an every day starter capable of hitting lefties (5-for-24, .208 AVG), he has scalded right-handers, with an .862 OPS, an 11.6% walk-rate and 14.7% K-rate (those numbers are 3.8% and 30.8% against southpaws).

Even if he is a platoon left fielder, paired with Weston Wilson (who hit a three-run bomb of a righty reliever Sunday), he’d still be in the lineup 75-80% of the time, making a very valuable player. How valuable?

According to Fangraphs, his 0.6 fWAR ranks 5th on the Phillies (Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott are both 1.0, with Trea Turner at 0.9 and Bryce Harper at 0.7), and with Baseball Reference, his 0.7 WAR is 3rd, behind Schwarber’s 1.2 and Harper’s 1.0.

Anyone who follows me online knows I was not a fan of the Kepler signing, for a number of reasons. He was coming off an injury-plagued 2024 season in which he did not play well, and he did not solve the existing Phillies problem of an outfielder who could play every day or, at the very least, hit left-handed pitching. That being said, this take of mine is worthy of scrutiny.

Profar, of course, is out for half the season due to a PED suspension and is ineligible to be on the Atlanta postseason roster if they get there.

At the very least, it was far better for the Phils to have signed Kepler to his one-year, $10 million deal than Jurickson Profar to his three-year contract, given where things stand here in early May.

But it wasn’t a take, for take’s sake. I really did believe it, and I’m glad it’s a candidate for Cold Takes Exposed. Keep rakin’, Max.

Sweeping Ain’t Easy

The Phillies had a chance to make a statement on Sunday with a three-game sweep of the Snakes, but it wasn’t to be. Rallying from down 7-1 to an 8-8 tie with a two-run, two-out, 9th inning rally, the Phils couldn’t finish the deal and fell 11-9 in 10 innings.

It was the fifth time this year the Phillies won the first two games of a three game series, and in four of them (three at Citizens Bank Park), they failed to finish off a sweep:

Opening series vs. Nationals: won the first two, lost Sunday game 5-1
April 18-20 series vs. Marlins: won the first two, lost Sunday game 7-5, 10 innings
This week, won first two against the Nationals, lost Thursday finale 4-2
Won first two vs. Diamondbacks, lost Sunday game 11-9 in 10 innings

Their lone sweep this season came against the woeful Colorado Rockies, in the second series of the season.

One of the reasons the Phillies raced out to a 62-34 first half record a season ago was they took advantage of those sweeping opportunities when they had the chance. In April, May and June, they won the first two games of a three game series 11 times and swept seven of them, losing the finale just four times. During the final three months of 2024, the Phillies only had five sweeping opportunities and swept just two of them, although one of those opportunities was a four-game series against the Nationals in August in which they won the first three.

There’s reason to feel good about the Phils’ recent homestand, but there’s always a bit of momentum lost when they allow a team to sneak out of town with a victory in the finale to avoid the sweep.

A New Extra Innings Solution

Are you, like me, someone who hates the zombie-runner on 2nd to start the 10th inning rule in MLB?

It always feels like a fluky win or loss, no matter how it comes about. Asking a pitcher to try to pitch around a leadoff runner on second in extra innings just feels like a faux way to end a baseball game, and it needs to change.

The rule was originally instituted during the COVID pandemic as a way of keeping games shorter and reducing the amount of time players could potentially infect each other while on the field. Now, it’s main reason for existing is to keep games shorter from a fan enjoyment perspective and also prevent managers from having to burn through an entire bullpen and potentially use the following day’s starting pitcher or a position player if a game drags on too long.

I’ve always loved the super-long and super-rare extra inning game because it tests the depth of the entire organization’s pitching. Are there enough arms in AAA to help the big league team out if they go 18 innings on a Tuesday night? How quickly can you get the reinforcements to the game the following day? How many of your relievers can pitch 3-5 innings if need be?

But aside from all that, winning or losing an extra inning game with the current rules feels cheaper. It doesn’t feel earned. So, here’s a solution presented by an X follower of mine that I think solves all these problems.

Maybe in the 10th it’s no runner

11th guy on first

12th guy on 2nd

13th guy on 3rd

14th 3rd & 1st

15 3rd & 2nd

16+ bases loaded

— Daniel Mormak (@danpsu09) May 5, 2025

Who could be against this?

The 10th inning is played with normal rules. Starting a runner on first in the 11th gives the offense a little boost, but it’s still impossible to score even if the pitcher gets the first two hitters out. By the time the 12th rolls around, now you start really making things easier for the offense, and it’s hard to imagine a game would ever get past the 13th under the rules above.

Call it a Progressive Extra Innings rules change that should immediately be adopted as part of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Good job, Daniel!

No Consensus On Postseason Odds

Is it silly to even look at postseason odds with just 20% of the season under wraps? Of course it is. Even so, take a gander at the Phils’ postseason odds according to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference right now.

BBRef’s odds give the Phillies a 26.6% chance of reaching the postseason. That ranks 8th among National League teams. According to their metrics, they believe the Phils, on average, will win 84 games in 2025, which puts them behind the Cubs and Padres (97), Mets (93), Giants (90), Diamondbacks (88) and Brewers (87). Their postseason odds have dropped by 21.7% over the past 30 days, the biggest decrease in baseball outside of Atlanta (-25.3%).

Fangraphs is more bullish. They have the Phils 4th (71.0%), behind the Dodgers (98.0%), Mets (79.3%), and Cubs (76.0%), and ahead of the Braves (63.9%), Padres (60.2%), Giants (55.3%), D-Backs (50.9%), and Brewers (17.4%). Their win totals for the NL West are few games less, and they don’t project anyone other than the Cubs to be over .500 in the NL Central by the time the season is over.

Nothing really to analyze here, just thought it was interesting!