We’re now less than a week from Opening Day, and things are certainly coming into focus. While spring training statistics are basically useless in terms of predictive value, when has that ever stopped anyone from looking at them and drawing conclusions? So, based on the Cactus League results so far, here are three players – a hitter, a starting pitcher and a reliever – whose stock seems to have risen as a result of their performance, and three others about whom there might be reason for concern.

Three upJordan Lawlar

There are a few candidates here: Alek Thomas, Jorge Barrosa and Jose Fernandez all have an OPS over 1.000. Lawlar is right there with them, his triple-slash being .293/.420/.610 for a 1.030 OPS. But he was also having to learn a whole new position, playing the outfield for almost the first time in his professional career. He has done well: he committed his first error the other day, but a couple of hitters later, made a highlight reel play. Lawlar has played so well, it leaves Torey Lovullo with a tricky decision: should he or Thomas play CF? “They’re running balls down out there. They’re going out there and playing solid defense. Who gets to start in center or left, I haven’t figured that out.”

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Brandon Pfaadt

It feels like we should add “Pfaadt breakout prediction” to our spring training bingo card. Before 2024, we had Brandon Pfaadt could be MLB’s biggest breakout player next season. Then, early in the 2025 season, it was Brandon Pfaadt is Forging a Breakout Season Despite the Odds. This year, he’s making lists like Top 10 NL Breakout Players to Watch in 2026. Spring has done nothing to dampen this enthusiasm: over ten innings, he has allowed just three hits and one earned run, with eleven strikeouts. Hence: Brandon Pfaadt’s Adjustments are Already Paying Off, discussing the hopes tweaks to his mechanics could lead to his sweeper becoming a weapon. We’ll see, but fingers crossed.

Juan Morillo

Of the two dozen D-backs’ pitchers to have thrown at least five innings this spring, there is only one who has yet to allow an earned run: Morillo. Across 7.1 innings, he has eight strikeouts, compared to only two walks, and so far has held opposing hitters to a .167 average. It’s numbers which compare very well, in a similar sample size, to more established relievers like Ryan Thompson or Jonathan Loaisiga. It’s easy to forget Morillo appeared 42 times for Arizona last year, a number surpassed only by Thompson and Jalen Beeks, with an ERA+ of 104. He may end up squeezed out of the Opening Day roster for “veteran presence.” However, I predict it won’t be long before he’s on the bus up from Reno.

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Three downCorbin Carroll

Spring had barely started, when Carroll had to go on the back burner, after fracturing the hamate bone in his hand while swinging. This was initially expected to rule him out for Opening Day, but he set a near-record pace for recovery, returning to the line-up less than four weeks after surgery. The concern is whether the surgery might have a lingering impact, particularly on his power. Although the data doesn’t support that, he has got off to a slow start since his return. Carroll is 2-for-12 with no walks and four strikeouts. While he did hit his first home-run on Wednesday against the Cubs, his OPS to date is only .583. Hopefully, it’s just a case of lingering winter rust being knocked off.

Merrill Kelly

As with Carroll, the issue here is probably as much a health concern as anything. He is no longer feeling any problems with his back, the area which forced him into a late spring start and out of Opening Day. However, Merrill still thinks he will need to start the year on the Injured List. He has made two starts so far, and the results haven’t been good: 11 hits across 4.1 innings with just one strikeout. Though it is true Kelly will be behind opposing hitters in terms of workload, so that may be responsible. The bottom line is, a healthy and effective Merrill is almost essential for the Diamondbacks to have a chance this year. We haven’t enjoyed that so far this pre-season.

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Kade Strowd

There are several candidates here. Kevin Ginkel and Brandyn Garcia also have spring ERAs in double digits, rocking chances for an Opening Day spot. But neither were traded this winter for a fan favorite. Strowd came from the Orioles for Blaze Alexander, and expectations were he would be able to contribute immediately to the beleaguered D-backs bullpen. Stroud has been missing some bats, with nine strikeouts over 7.2 innings. But he has also been missing the strikezone, issuing five walks. Add in eleven hits, including two home-runs, and you’re looking at an ugly 10.57 ERA. He has begun to fall off roster projections. Blaze, meanwhile, is expected to start for Baltimore on Opening Day.