With just under a week before Opening Day, the battles for spots on the Minnesota Twins’ active roster are being settled. The biggest one to close out the final full week of spring training is in the starting rotation. On Friday, the Twins announced that they had optioned Zebby Matthews to Triple-A St. Paul, lining Mick Abel up for a rotation spot.

Following the season-ending Tommy John surgery to Pablo López and shoulder inflammation forcing David Festa to the injured list, the Twins had six starters left for five spots in camp. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were locks for the rotation. So were Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson. That left Abel and Matthews to battle it out for the fifth spot.

Mick Abel made five starts and Matthews four. Still, their results were nearly polar opposites this spring. Abel dominated opponents. He was scoreless in his first three outings and closed out camp with a 2.00 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 18 strikeouts, and three walks allowed.

Matthews, on the other hand, struggled following his start in the Twins exhibition game against the University of Minnesota. In his three other starts, Matthews gave up eight runs in 8 ⅔ innings, allowing 10 hits and two walks, but only had six strikeouts with a 5.73 ERA.

Spring training stats are not the ultimate deciding factor in earning a player a roster spot. Still, something more concerning has emerged with Matthews in each start. His fastball velocity fluctuated, suggesting a decline.

In his start against the Gophers, Matthews velo topped out at 97.2 MPH. However, it went down to 96.7 MPH his next time out, then 95.9. He was able to regain a little velo in his last outing on March 15. Still, his fastball only topped out at 96.5 MPH, which was 0.3 MPH below his 2025 average of 96.2 MPH.

Meanwhile, Abel hasn’t shown any decrease in velocity. He topped out at 97.1 MPH in his first start and reached 98.9 MPH the next time out. Then 98.4 MPH, 97.6 MPH, and finally 97.5 MPH in his outing this Thursday against the Red Sox.

Since Zebby Matthews has consistently built up velo every year since the Twins drafted him, the dip is some cause for concern. If it’s not injury-related, then sending him down to Triple-A to work on rebuilding velo is their best course of action.

For Mick Abel, this means the Twins are all in on his upside. He has very little left to prove at Triple-A after he won the International League Pitcher of the Year award in 2025. Abel had a 2.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 114 strikeouts, and 40 walks. He also had a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 98 ⅓ innings. However, his results in the majors weren’t entirely encouraging with the Twins until his last start of the season against the Philadelphia Phillies, who traded him to Minnesota.

Abel pitched six scoreless innings in Philadelphia, allowing only three hits, one walk, and striking out nine. By adding him to the Opening Day rotation spot, the Twins are giving their vote of confidence that this version of Abel will be the one they’ll see on the mound for most of the season. If Abel can pitch like this for most of the season, it will elevate Minnesota’s starting rotation from where it’s been the last four weeks since López went down for the year.

But Twins fans shouldn’t expect Matthews to remain in Triple-A for long. He could be back in the Twins rotation before May 1, given how frequently pitchers get injured. Even if the rest of the rotation remains healthy between now and May 1, they may still need a sixth starter for a spot start or two.

The Twins have 17 home games in April, and Minnesota is not the most hospitable place for outdoor baseball. There’s at least one series bound to have a rainout and force a doubleheader, which would be an opportunity to call Matthews back up for a start if it’s his turn in the rotation.

After the Twins optioned him to Triple-A, though, fans won’t have to go far to watch Matthews pitch. The Saints have three homestands in March and April. He more than likely will be St. Paul’s Opening Day starter in Indianapolis on March 27. From there, he will have multiple opportunities to prove he belongs in Minnesota’s rotation full-time.

No matter the outcome for either Mick Abel or Zebby Matthews this spring, the Twins still find themselves in a good position with their rotation depth despite already losing two starters to the IL for the foreseeable future.

They will undoubtedly tap deeper into their starting rotation depth in St. Paul, potentially calling up pitchers like Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp, or Kendry Rojas. But by having Matthews there now, they can take their time further developing those starters before the Twins call upon them this summer.