ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) – The National League East’s intense competition throughout the decade has usually bred tough teams.
The Braves frequently jockey with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies for both the division lead and the wild-card race, but both the Braves and Mets missed the postseason in 2025. It was the first time the Braves failed to reach the playoffs since 2017.
Although the Phillies were the only NL East team in the 2025 postseason, the division appears poised to return to the familiar three-team race this season.
FanGraphs projects the Braves and Mets to finish tied atop the division at 88–74, with the Phillies close behind at 87 wins. The Marlins, meanwhile, continue their rebuild with a projection of 75 wins, while the Washington Nationals are expected to struggle with a 69-win projection.
According to FanGraphs, the Braves, Phillies and Mets all have more than a 70% chance of making the postseason.
Let’s take a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of all five NL East clubs to determine who has the best shot at securing a playoff spot in 2026.
Philadelphia Phillies (96-66 in 2025)
Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber, left, celebrates with Bryce Harper after hitting a home run off of Angel Zerpa during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) (Matt Rourke/AP)
Notable additions: RHP Brad Keller, OF Adolis García, UTIL Dylan Moore, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, LHP Kyle Backhus, RHP Zach Pop
Notable subtractions: LHP Ranger Suárez, OF Harrison Bader, OF Nick Castellanos, LHP Matt Strahm, RHP Jordan Romano, RHP David Robertson, RHP Walker Buehler
The Phillies had one of the more gut-wrenching postseason exits in recent history, with a costly error from right-hander Orion Kerkering helping the Los Angeles Dodgers eventually win the World Series.
The Phillies enter the 2026 campaign without Ranger Suárez, who posted a 3.20 ERA across 157.1 innings in 2025. Suárez was one of the top free-agent pitching options during the offseason and signed a five-year, $130 million with the Boston Red Sox.
Philadelphia’s rotation remains formidable, featuring Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, alongside the eventual return of right-hander Zack Wheeler from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The bullpen is anchored by fireballer Jhoan Durán.
The Phillies have largely kept their offensive core. The team retained Kyle Schwarber, who launched 56 home runs last year, and catcher J.T. Realmuto, a veteran backstop who has consistently proven his value to the club. Stars such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are also back for another go.
It’s still a highly talented squad, but how much longer this core of 30-something veterans can continue to perform at a high level remains an open question.
New York Mets (83-79)
New York Mets’ Juan Soto watches as he flies out to Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong during the first inning of a baseball game in Chicago, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) (Nam Y. Huh/AP)
Notable additions: SS Bo Bichette, RHP Freddy Peralta, OF Luis Robert Jr., 2B Marcus Semien, RHP Devin Williams, 2B Jorge Polanco, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Tobias Myers, OF MJ Melendez, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Craig Kimbrel, OF Mike Tauchman
Notable subtractions: 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Edwin Diaz, OF Brandon Nimmo, UTIL Jeff McNeil, RHP Tyler Rogers, RHP Brandon Sproat, 2B Luisangel Acuña, OF Cedric Mullins, OF Starling Marte, RHP Ryan Helsley, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Ryne Stanek, LHP Danny Young, RHP Cooper Criswell, RHP Griffin Canning, RHP Drew Smith
The New York Mets are coming off a disappointing season despite signing Juan Soto to a record 15-year, $765 million contract. So, they went back to the drawing board, let some key veterans go and brought in a whole bunch of talent.
Roster mainstays Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil were all let go or traded during the offseason, and the team added infielder Bo Bichette, right-hander Freddy Peralta and closer Devin Williams, among others. Bichette will move to third base once Francisco Lindor returns, providing a formidable infield duo to the left of Marcus Semien, another add from owner Steve Cohen this offseason.
The rotation, however, looks a bit shaky after ace Freddy Peralta. Nolan McLean is expected to make strides in his first full season in the majors, but a rotation rounding out with David Peterson, Clay Holmes and an injury risk in Kodai Senga will obviously prompt serious questions. The bullpen depth is similarly bleak outside of Williams and Luke Weaver.
So, a top-heavy lineup and a middling rotation and bleak bullpen outside of two players. Could we see a repeat of last season’s underwhelming performance? Or can we see a resurgent Mets squad that claims the division? Neither would be a surprising outcome.
Miami Marlins (79-83)
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky) (Lynne Sladky/AP)
Notable additions: OF Owen Caissie, RHP Pete Fairbanks, INF Christopher Morel, OF Esteury Ruiz, RHP Chris Paddack, LHP John King
Notable subtractions: RHP Edward Cabrera, LHP Ryan Weathers, OF Joey Wiemer, OF Dane Myers, 1B Eric Wagaman
The Marlins, in the midst of a rebuild, actually finished ahead of the Braves in the NL East in 2025.
Despite the third-place finish, the Marlins are continuing the rebuild, with a few notable additions. The team brought in right-hander Pete Fairbanks to anchor the bullpen; they are also hoping Sandy Alcantara can fully return to his 2023 form following Tommy John surgery. Alcantara posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP after the All-Star break last year, giving the organization reason for optimism heading into 2026.
Miami also parted ways with pitcher Edward Cabrera but acquired top prospect Owen Caissie in return, offering fans something to look forward to in a season focused squarely on development. Additional young talent like Agustín Ramírez and Kyle Stowers provides further hope, especially after Stowers showed flashes of dominance when healthy last season.
There’s an outside chance the Marlins could surprise and push past 80 wins, but this remains a transitional year. Contention is unlikely, though the roster features several intriguing pieces worth watching.
Atlanta Braves (76-86)
Atlanta Braves’ Drake Baldwin reacts after hitting a game-winning pinch hit single in the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Friday, April 18, 2025, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard) (Colin Hubbard/AP)
Notable additions: RHP Robert Suárez, OF Mike Yastrzemski, UTIL Mauricio Dubón, LHP Martín Pérez, SS Jorge Mateo, C Jonah Heim, RHP Joel Payamps, LHP Danny Young, RHP Ian Hamilton, INF Kyle Farmer, 1B Rowdy Tellez
Notable subtractions: DH Marcell Ozuna, RHP Alek Manoah, INF Nick Allen, RHP Pierce Johnson
The Braves were plagued by injuries in 2025, resulting in their first missed postseason since 2017.
Unfortunately, that trend has not slowed down heading into 2026. Even before spring training games began, Atlanta lost catcher Sean Murphy (hip), infielder Ha-Seong Kim (finger), and pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep due to elbow injuries. The setbacks continued, as the team also lost Jurickson Profar (PED suspension), left-hander Joey Wentz (knee) and right-hander Spencer Strider (oblique) before opening day.
Despite the injury concerns, the Braves made key bullpen additions. The team re-signed Tyler Kinley and brought in former San Diego Padres closer Robert Suárez on a three-year deal. Suárez and Raisel Iglesias should give the Braves a formidable late-inning duo. Having not one, but two shut down relievers should give the offense time and space to pull ahead and is a proven method in the postseason.
Still, in a competitive NL East and with so many early injuries, Atlanta will need several things to break its way in 2026 to seriously contend for a postseason spot.
The core remains largely intact from last season, including reigning NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin, who looks poised for a strong sophomore campaign, and Michael Harris II, a candidate for a bounce-back year. The team will also benefit from a full season of Ronald Acuña Jr. for the first time since 2023.
Offensively, the additions of Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubón should provide a little bit of power and depth to the lineup.
In the rotation, the Braves are expected to open the season with Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder and likely José Suárez while awaiting the returns of Strider, Schwellenbach and Waldrep. However, any additional injuries could force the front office to seek external help or turn to top prospects like JR Ritchie or Didier Fuentes to fill the gaps.
There’s plenty to like about the Braves. However, any additional setbacks could significantly impact the roster and potentially lead to another postseason absence.
Washington Nationals (66-96)
Washington Nationals’ James Wood in action during a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox, Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nick Wass) (Nick Wass/AP)
Notable additions: C Harry Ford, RHP Zack Littell, RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Foster Griffin, SS Gavin Fien
Notable subtractions: LHP MacKenzie Gore, LHP Jose A. Ferrer, 1B Josh Bell, 3B Paul DeJong
Welcome to the rebuild after the rebuild.
Six years after winning the World Series, the Nationals hit reset once again, dismissing general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez following another losing season. In their place, the organization turned to 36-year-old GM Paul Toboni and 33-year-old manager Blake Butera in hopes of charting a new direction.
The roster has already seen significant changes. MacKenzie Gore was dealt to the Texas Rangers during the offseason, and former cornerstone pieces like CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz could be next as the team continues to reshape its future.
One clear bright spot is James Wood, who launched 31 home runs in 2025 and looks every bit like the franchise cornerstone moving forward.
Expectations remain low in 2026. The Nationals are aiming to avoid not just a last-place finish in the NL East, but the worst record in all of baseball. The rotation, led by veterans Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell, is more about stability than upside, though right-hander Cade Cavalli remains an intriguing arm to watch.
All in all, it could be a rough season in Washington. But as history shows, every team eventually cycles through stretches like this — even if this one feels particularly steep.
Regular season looms
The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants will open the regular season on Wednesday in a game that will be broadcast on Netflix.
Several other teams will begin their seasons on Thursday, but the Braves will have to wait until Friday to get underway. They’ll open with a three-game set against the Kansas City Royals before heading into another three-game series against the Athletics starting Monday.
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