Crawfish Boxes Staff Astros Predictions for 2026

Our staff gives their roster predictions, and some key players of note for them this season.

Adam Spolane: 88-74. 2nd AL West, Wild Card Team

Big season: Before last season, Yordan Alvarez had played 135+ games in three of four seasons since returning from his 2020 knee surgery, but a fractured hand and a sprained ankle limited him to just 48 games in 2025. He should be able to bounce back into the 135-game range and produce his usual numbers. Joe Espada will likely help keep him healthy by limiting his time in the outfield, and the team can be smart with his off days, using the DH spot to cycle in other veterans for a half off day.

Breakout: The Astros’ track record of identifying pitchers they can take to another level is well known, which is why it’s easy to be bullish on Mike Burrows after they gave up a significant return to acquire him from the Pirates over the winter. Burrows pitched well last season, but Houston identified a few pitch selection tweaks—most notably adding a two-seam fastball against righties—and the early results this spring have been impressive. With Framber Valdez now in Detroit and Tatsuya Imai able to opt out after the season, the Astros need Burrows, who is under team control for five more years, to emerge. They haven’t drafted a pitcher in the first round since 2018, and right now, there isn’t an arm in their system that projects as an above-average starter.

Rough season: Dusty Baker used to say it takes older players longer to get going, and the Astros better hope that applies to Christian Walker. Coming off a disappointing first season in Houston, Walker had a dreadful spring, slashing .139/.205/.333 with a 26% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. It came in just 39 plate appearances, but you’d still like to see a little more life after he finished last season with 0.2 bWAR and a 97 OPS+. The Jose Abreu comparisons will never apply to Walker because he plays a Gold Glove caliber first base, but you don’t pay a third baseman $20 million/season for his glove.

Joel Blank: 86-76, 2nd AL West, Wild Card

Big Season: Yordan Alvarez

Breakout Season: Brice Matthews

Most Concerned About: Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers

Three players most interested in: Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Yordan Alvarez

Possible trade candidates: Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Jake Meyers

Craig Larson Jr.: 88-74, 2nd AL West, Wild Card

Big Season: For all of the off-season banter about being dealt, I actually think Isaac Paredes will have a big year. I personally enjoy watching him work counts.

Most Concerned About: I think Cam Smith continues to struggle and he’s the number one concern for me. Unfortunately, I think when we look back, he’ll join a list of highly touted prospects that didn’t pan out. Think of the first rodeo for Jon Singleton or back in the day, Cameron Drew who never panned out in the late 80’s.

Player Most Interested In: I think Bryan Abreu gets on a roll with total appearances, elevates his total strikeouts once again exceeding 100 for the season. In short, he gets even better in 26′ making it harder to avoid arbitration next time around given his dominance. He has a big year.

Jimmy Price: 91-71, AL West Champs

Big season: Cam Smith.. saw flashes last year but after a full off-season, I expect him to have a big year.

Rough season: Yainer Diaz… I’m afraid the pitch selection issues will continue to hurt him offensively.

Breakout: I’ll go the prospect route and say Cole Hertzler.

Scott Barzilla: 85-77, 2nd AL West, miss playoffs.

Big Season: I think Yordan is finally healthy enough to play 140 games and will produce a .900 OPS

Rough Season: I think Yainer Diaz falls off a cliff. He is just not selective enough and pitchers will figure out how to pitch around him.

Breakout Season: Cam Smith takes a significant step forward and becomes a four win player. He has the look of a young Jason Heyward.

Brett Chancey: 88-74, 2nd AL West, Wild Card

Big Season: Yordan Alvarez. If Yordan stays healthy, we could see something special. FanGraphs projects him to hit .294 with a 156 wRC+, and if he plays around 140 games (+/- 5 games)I believe he finally eclipses the 40 HR mark for the first time in his career. When Alvarez is on the field consistently, he’s still one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

Most Concerned About: Lance McCullers Jr.. FanGraphs projects McCullers for around 113 innings, but that feels like an overreach to me. At this stage, if McCullers gives Houston more than 70 innings, that would already be clearing a major hurdle. The bigger questions isn’t just health, it’s effectiveness after so much time away. McCullers hasn’t been able to stay healthy consistently for a while now, and until he proves otherwise it’s hard to project a full workload in 2026. That said, if he comes back healthy and dominates, I’ll be the first one to congratulate him. Houston would gladly take that boost in the rotation.

Breakout Player: Cam Smith. Cam is the guy I’m watching for a breakout season in 2026. His ability to play both left field and center field gives the Astros flexibility defensively, and that versatility could put him squarely in the conversation for a Gold Glove if things click. The athleticism, range, and defensive instincts are there. if the bat continues to develop alongside the glove, Smith could turn into one of the Astros’ biggest impact players this season.

Rookie to Watch: Brice Matthews. Another player to keep an eye on is Matthews. The tools are loud, and if he gets an opportunity this season, I think he has a real chance to work his way into the top 10-15 range of the AL Rookie of the Year conversation. The combination of power, speed and positional versatility makes him an intriguing piece for Houston moving forward.

Pitcher to Watch: Mike Burrows. If Houston can unlock another level with his arsenal, he could become a really important piece of the rotation depth and possibly more. The Astros’ pitching development track record speaks for itself, and Burrows could be the next arm that takes a leap forward.

Final Thoughts: The Astros might now be the overwhelming favorite they once were, but this is still a dangerous club. Houston still has championship experience, emerging young talent like Cam Smith and Brice Matthews, and a pitching staff that could surprise people if arms like Mike Burrows take the next step. Don’t count this team out. The window isn’t closed yet.

Patrick Creighton: 93-69, AL West Champs.

This is a team that won 87 games as one of the greatest MASH units in MLB history. Simply being healthier should win this team 6 games easily. A healthy Yordan Alvarez alone can make that kind of difference.

Big Season: Yordan Alvarez. When Yordan is playing and not injured, he’s a certifiable wrecking machine. Don’t discount his pride and desire to win. Yordan was clearly frustrated by his injury and the “less than stellar treatment” received from the team to overcome his hand injury. When he returned, he blistered the baseball to the tune of .369/.462/.569 (that’s a 1.031 OPS) in 19 games before suffering a freak ankle injury stepping on home plate. I expect an inspired Yordan Alvarez this season, that is good news for Houston and bad news for opposing pitchers.

Breakout Season: Cam Smith. Cam has been locked in this spring, stinging the baseball to all fields, pulling the ball more with authority, and continuing to show the athleticism that has made him make the transition to outfield easily. Batting lower in the lineup to start the year will help, but his new approach and mechanics at the plate have already shown dividends, and his presence lower in the lineup really extends the lineup and makes this a more dangerous offense. Wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually leapfrogs a couple of people in the lineup, especially this guy…

Rough Season: Yainer Diaz. For three seasons, we have been waiting for Yainer Diaz to learn some plate discipline, stop swinging at pitches out of the zone that turn to weak ground ball contact, and draw some walks. After three seasons, he has not learned any of it. Yainer doesn’t post big strikeout totals because he has very strong bat-to-ball skills, the problem is all the soft contact he makes leads to a disgracefully high GIDP total (including a league worst 22 GIDP in 2024). Yainer needs to learn to take pitches and not swing at everything. He could be a legitimate impact bat if he would just show some discipline at the plate. Now entering his age 27 season, it’s likely not going to happen. At this point, he is simply the placeholder for Walker Janek.

Trade Candidate: Jake Meyers. Jake’s fluky offensive season (.292 AVG, .354 OBP, .727 OPS) is highly unlikely to be repeated. Expect hard regression to his career norms (.243 AVG, .307 OBP, .678 OPS). Jake is nothing more than a bottom of the order bat who doesn’t utilize his speed enough on the basepaths. He is a terrific defensive player despite his weak throwing arm, as he mostly runs down anything. However, the Astros now have younger players in Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Joey Loperfido and Cam Smith who can also run down baseballs well, have excellent speed, have strong arms, and a lot more offensive upside. The time to trade Meyers was this offseason and the Astros basically blew that. They should find a taker for Jake as soon as possible to any team desperate for a defensive CF and get themselves some bullpen help.

Player To Watch: Tatsuya Imai. I am projecting Imai to be the runaway AL ROY. His stuff is absolutely filthy. His tweak to his mechanics has increased the velocity on his fastball to 98+ MPH, and his breaking stuff is electric. The only core weakness in his game is command, as he has historically been a high walk pitcher in his career prior to last season. He gets immense swing-and-miss, and his added velocity is going to make the breaking pitches even harder to hit. Imai may be fourth in the rotation to start the season, but he will pitch like a strong number two. Brown, Imai and Burrows will wind up forming one of the best “Big Three” starting tandems in all of baseball.

Final Thoughts: While the offense won’t be incredible, it will be better than many people expect. The starting pitching has the chance to be elite, especially the top 3 guys. My concern for this team is the bullpen.

Josh Hader will be considered an injury risk for the rest of his time in Houston, and with him still not able to max out his velocity should not be expected back once his mandatory 15 days are up.

Bennett Sousa established himself as a leverage reliever last season, and had taken over 8th inning duties when he got injured and was shut down for the season. Sousa now starts the year on the 15-day IL with an oblique strain and could be out two months.

This will put significant strain on the pen. Bryan Abreu must step up in the closer’s role, especially early. Bryan King is likely to get high leverage innings, and I can see A.J. Blubaugh getting high leverage innings as well from the right side. Blubaugh’s power stuff plays well in short bursts, and he could wind up being an extremely important guy in the pen. With Ryan Weiss and Kai-Wei Teng also in the bullpen as relievers who can give multiple innings, Houston can afford to make Blubaugh a key set-up man in the pen.

Clearly, I am asking for some unknown/untested players to perform in the pen. However, it’s certainly not unreasonable to think those players can fill those roles, and if they do, this team will be much better than people think.

Last year, as good as the national media made Seattle out to be, they only won 90 games. They beat one of the most injury ravaged teams in baseball history by only 3 games. That screams to me Seattle is being overrated and the Astros are being slept on.

Usually the Astros are in the frontrunner seat, with high expectations and everyone gunning for them. This year, the expectations for the team are the lowest they have been in a decade, and I expect them to outperform those expectations, be an exciting team, and give Astros fans a lot to enjoy in 2026. LFGA!

Crawfish Boxes Staff Astros Predictions for 2026

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