Updated March 25, 2026, 11:42 p.m. ET
The Washington Nationals and the Chicago Cubs open the 2026 MLB regular season Thursday at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Tied 3-3
The Nationals posted a 66-96 record in 2025, finishing in last place in the NL East. Washington managed a 34-47 record on the road, while posting an overall run differential of minus-212. The Nationals went 11-20 against the NL Central Division.
LF James Wood finished the 2025 season hitting .256 with 31 HRs, 94 RBIs and a .825 OPS. He is a player Washington is relying on taking another step forward in his progression.
The Cubs posted an 92-70 record in 2025, finishing second in the NL Central, 5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs were 50-31 at home, and they posted a plus-144 run differential overall in 2025. Chicago went 15-15 against the NL East Division.
3B Alex Bregman signed a 5-year, $175 million contract with the Chicago in January. He finished the 2025 season hitting .273 with 18 HRs, 62 RBIs and a .821 OPS for the Boston Red Sox. He competed for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
Watch MLB on Fubo!Nationals at Cubs projected starters
RHP Cade Cavalli vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Cavalli (3-1, 4.25 ERA) made 10 starts in 2025. He had a 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 48 2/3 innings.
Has never faced the Cubs2025 road stats: 1-1, 6.17 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 6 HR, 8 BB, 15 K in 5 starts
Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) made 31 starts in 2025. He had a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 179 2/3 innings.
Pitched once for Team USA in World Baseball Classic (2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K)2025 vs. Nationals: 0-2, 2.51 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K in 2 startsCareer vs. Nationals: 1-2, 3.15 ERA (20 IP, 7 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts2025 home stats: 12-1, 2.51 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 11 HR, 14 BB, 79 K in 15 startsNationals at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Cubs -225 (bet $225 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-110) | Cubs -1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pirates at Mets picks and predictionsPrediction
Cubs 4, Nationals 2
I like the Cubs (-225) to win on Opening Day at Wrigley, but not at these odds.
BET CUBS -1.5 (-110).
Boyd gives Chicago a clear advantage against the Nationals lineup that struck out 25.1% versus lefties last season. He’s coming off a strong 2025 with 154 strikeouts and has the swing-and-miss stuff to control this matchup.
At Wrigley Field, the Cubs should get a boost from the Opening Day crowd. With Chicago viewed as a contender and Washington still rebuilding, this sets up as a favorable spot for the Cubs to win by multiple runs.
BET UNDER 8 (-110).
A matchup between Boyd and Cavalli points toward a low-scoring game at Wrigley Field. Boyd delivered a strong 2025, while Cavalli looked sharp this spring after returning from injury.
The Cubs could see some offensive regression, and the Nationals have consistently struggled to produce runs. Add in the Under hitting in 5 of the last 6 meetings, and this shapes up as a pitching-driven opener.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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