The long, cold wait is over. Baseball has returned.
The eyes of Baltimore turn to Camden Yards on Thursday for opening day against the Minnesota Twins, with first pitch scheduled for 3:05 p.m. Beneath the pomp and circumstance will be questions about this club. Can the Orioles return to winning after a 2025 debacle? How will the team look under new manager Craig Albernaz? And when will key signing Pete Alonso blast his first home run?
All of that will come. And in here we’ll do our best predicting the unpredictable.
Record and playoff finish
Albernaz, right, watches the Orioles play the Nationals on Sunday in an exhibition game at Camden Yards. (Terrance Williams for The Banner)
Andy Kostka, Orioles beat writer: 86-76. The American League East, conceivably, could have three wild-card teams. The Orioles are set to be among those teams, but I have concerns about the bullpen and defense that keep me from picking Baltimore as division champion. In the postseason anything can happen, and the Orioles’ power-hitting lineup and rotation depth (and the subsequent spillover of starters into the bullpen) lead me to expect Baltimore to at least get over the hump. The Orioles will win in the wild-card round for their first playoff series victory since 2014. But that’s it. They’ll fall in the American League Division Series.
Kyle Goon, columnist: 81-81, no playoffs. This team, like many others we’ve seen in the last five years, is constructed in such a way that a few key injuries will rock the boat significantly. Frankly, these injuries have already happened. Jordan Westburg missing time with an elbow injury reeks of something that could bother him past the early season. Although Jackson Holliday should return soon, you wonder what the Orioles will miss if he can’t bring the power he started to flash last year (broken hamate bones are notorious for this). Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward help the overall power profile of this team, but questions in the infield and the bullpen make me think that competing in the cutthroat AL East will leave these guys outside the playoff picture.
Andrew Golden, sports features/baseball writer: 85-77. The Orioles are going to have one of the best offenses in baseball. They’re loaded with proven sluggers and potential breakout players who I believe will take steps forward. I have concerns about their pitching; their bullpen looks vulnerable. Their rotation is anchored by three starters who haven’t been extremely durable. I think the Orioles stay in the mix for a wild-card spot until the end but come up short thanks to a highly competitive AL East.
Paul Mancano, “Banner Baseball Show” co-host: 88-74, American League Divisional Series. I was high on the Orioles at this point last year, and look how that turned out. But the definition of insanity is changing your opinion based on new evidence, right? I think Baltimore sneaks into the postseason — despite finishing third in the division — thanks to an improved rotation and Craig Albernaz’s good vibes.
Jon Meoli, Orioles columnist: 89-73, ALDS. I think the Orioles are going to get off to a good start and ride that to a much better season. I also think the AL East is going to be an absolute bloodbath, and the absence of a tomato can for the other teams to kick around means the win totals are going to be a little deflated. And, yes, this is me predicting the Orioles will defy the odds and win a playoff game, too.
Most Valuable Oriole
Gunnar Henderson is greeted by Pete Alonso after hitting a solo home run against the Nationals. (Terrance Williams for The Banner)
Kostka: RHP Kyle Bradish. Another year, another starting pitcher. After left-hander Trevor Rogers won MVO in 2025, Bradish is poised for his own breakout. If he can remain healthy — Bradish pitched a combined 71 1/3 innings in 2024 and 2025 — he has the stuff to lead a staff. And to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Goon: SS Gunnar Henderson. Let’s not overthink it. Henderson had a relatively quiet spring, except for on the World Baseball Classic stage, where he was outstanding in limited opportunities. I think the WBC performance is more representative of the season he will have. A shoulder injury limited his power last year, which was really the only thing standing between him and another All-Star season. I’d bet on closer to 30 homers, and Henderson’s defense will be all the more important for the injuries the Orioles are seeing in their infield.
Golden: 1B Pete Alonso. Unlike Kyle, I’m going to overthink it. Henderson is the easy choice. Alonso, who signed a five-year, $155 million contract, wasn’t added just to hit home runs (though those will be great). He was added to fill a leadership void. His impact will be felt in the clubhouse, through positive energy during the dog days of the summer and accountability for his teammates.
Mancano: Henderson. He put up 5.3 wins above replacement in 2025, according to Baseball Reference, despite missing most of spring training and playing through a shoulder injury. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best players in baseball.
Meoli: Henderson. I have nothing to say that I haven’t already said. Mainly, he’s going to be on a mission after receiving uneven playing time in the WBC. So I’ll just use this as an occasion to say the team should make MVO ballots public.
Breakout star
Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo. (Zack Wittman for The Banner)
Kostka: C/DH Samuel Basallo. He’s not trying to be a “crazy chicken” at the plate, as Basallo said, but he hits the ball really hard. People who hit the ball that hard tend to have good results. Basallo is ready for a breakout campaign if he can improve his chase rate and, by extension, make pitchers pay for pitches in the zone.
Goon: RHP Shane Baz. I’ll stand by my assessment that the Orioles would have done well to add a proven elite arm. But their machinations to essentially replace Grayson Rodriguez with Baz have grown on me, especially with Rodriguez injured again (sadly). As a hard-throwing righty, Baz has always had the stuff to be a high-end starter. I see Baz as making a Trevor Rogers-like push. Although it would be insane to see him replicate what Rogers did last season, with a new organizational start, his health and maybe an extra dose of confidence, I think it’s within reason to expect him to perform a lot better than most assumed when the O’s acquired him.
Golden: Basallo. The 21-year-old catcher gained experience at the major league level last season and saw how opposing pitchers attacked him. He has just over 100 major league at-bats to his name, so it’ll take time for Basallo to find his groove. But by June I think he’ll cut down his chase rate and display the power that made him one of the top prospects in baseball.
Mancano: Jackson Holliday would’ve been my selection had he not suffered a broken hamate bone before the start of spring training. Instead, I’ll go with Basallo. Let’s just hope he avoids the fate I doomed Heston Kjerstad to when I picked him last year.
Meoli: Anyone care that Kyle Bradish has a 2.89 ERA in 311 1/3 innings since the middle of 2022? That he’s not talked about as one of the best handful of pitchers in baseball means that many people clearly do not. I think he’s going to be dominant, going from great to elite, and a true ace. There’s no greater breakout than that.
Top bounce-back player
Colton Cowser runs the bases after a home run against the Nationals. (Terrance Williams for The Banner)
Kostka: OF Colton Cowser. There are many bounce-back candidates, but I’m going with Cowser to return to something closer to his 2024 self. Cowser was an AL Rookie of the Year finalist after producing a .768 OPS, but he stumbled to a .655 OPS in 2025 and was held back because of injuries. If he can maintain his health and prove to be a capable defender in center field, his efforts to improve on offense (particularly against off-speed pitches) can make him an impactful player.
Goon: My pick is also Cowser. A center fielder is not just the guy who has to cover the most ground but also the point man for the outfield defense. After fans enjoyed years of Cedric Mullins’ dazzling catches, the spotlight will be on Cowser to hold down the position. His left-on-left homer in Sunday’s exhibition is hopefully a sign of progress in an area that Cowser has worked on all offseason.
Golden: C Adley Rustchman. I have a hard time believing Rutschman can’t return to being the player he was in his first three seasons. He wasn’t healthy last season. He’s made swing adjustments that should pay off. I see Rutschman at the Midsummer Classic in Philadelphia this July.
Mancano: RHP Zach Eflin. This feels like cheating, because Eflin’s struggles in 14 starts last season could largely be attributed to the long-standing back injury that finally led to season-ending surgery. In Sarasota, Eflin’s velocity was back up and his stuff looked good enough to convince the Orioles to option Dean Kremer to the minor leagues.
Meoli: It’s Rutschman for me. We just haven’t seen the same player the last year-plus, but I believe the best version of him isn’t gone forever.
Biggest concern
Orioles left fielder Jeremiah Jackson is unable to catch the single hit by Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz. (Hannah Foslien for The Banner)
Kostka: The defense could be an issue. Although Gunnar Henderson has the potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop, the rest of Baltimore’s infield and outfield is filled with average defenders at best. There is always room for improvement (and surprise), but the Orioles weren’t great in this category last year, either with minus 23 outs above average, per FanGraphs, or minus 22.2 defensive wins above replacement. Their offseason moves didn’t improve this area.
Goon: This bullpen still has a ton of holes, which have been somewhat brushed over by the assumption the Orioles’ pitching depth can help. Aside from Ryan Helsley, who are the notable vets for high-leverage spots? It’s admirable that a guy like Tyler Wells is ready to make a transition, but any adjustment from starter to bullpen will likely take time. With Andrew Kittredge and Keegan Akin starting the season injured, there aren’t many proven relievers in this mix. There’s potential in guys like Grant Wolfram and Rico Garcia, but I’m not sure that makes anyone comfortable when it comes time to protect a lead.
Golden: The pitching overall concerns me. Baltimore’s top three starters — Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz — are talented but haven’t proven to be durable. The team is placing a lot of faith in those three. The bullpen, as Kyle said, is a weakness. It’ll be interesting to see how the group fares against some potent offenses in the AL East.
Mancano: It didn’t take long for injuries to hit this team. Holliday should be back early in the season, but will he suffer from the same power dip we’ve seen from other players after hamate surgery? Jordan Westburg, who is the Orioles’ most consistent hitter when healthy, won’t be back until May, and that’s if the platelet-rich-plasma injection in his arm works. The rotation seems to have been spared, but the bumps and bruises are piling up.
Meoli: Westburg playing has been the single most effective indicator of the Orioles’ success since the moment he arrived in 2023. When he’s in there, this team wins. When he’s out, it doesn’t nearly as often. I almost picked Coby Mayo as my breakout candidate because it’s a good bet on him to figure out the level and be a productive offensive third baseman. But Westburg feels irreplaceable to me and, at least for the short term, the Orioles have to win without him.