Will Red Sox reach playoffs again in 2026? Simulating the MLB season

Will Red Sox reach playoffs again in 2026? Simulating the MLB season originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Opinions about the 2026 Boston Red Sox are mixed heading into Thursday’s season opener in Cincinnati.

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Some are optimistic about the club after it took a step forward in 2025 and ended its four-year postseason drought. Others are hesitant to buy in because of the front office’s reluctance to spend on big-name free agents during the offseason.

Wherever you stand on this year’s group, there are plenty of reasons to be invested in the 2026 campaign. Roman Anthony is ready to prove he’s one of the league’s biggest stars, Garrett Crochet is eyeing the Cy Young award after finishing as the runner-up, and the rest of the rotation is expected to form one of the best units in the entire league.

After standout performances in the World Baseball Classic, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran are candidates for All-Star seasons. Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin are intriguing additions to the lineup, and Marcelo Mayer hopes to carve out a consistent role with the club after a mixed bag of a rookie year.

How will it all pan out? We asked our partners at Strat-O-Matic, and they ran a full simulation of the 2026 MLB season to find out. Here were the results:

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American League East standings

The Red Sox finished their 2025 season with an 89-73 record. The simulation for 2026 has them going 92-70 to place second in the AL East, two games behind the New York Yankees

Toronto slides down to third place after winning the AL East last year and bringing the Los Angeles Dodgers to Game 7 of the World Series.

Here are the full standings for every AL division:

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Player stats

Strat-O-Matic’s simulation isn’t all that optimistic about the power in Boston’s lineup.

Wilyer Abreu and Trevor Story led the club with 20 home runs apiece, while Roman Anthony paced the team in batting average (.303) and OPS (.849). Anthony totaled 17 homers in the simulation, which may come as a disappointment to those expecting an MVP-caliber season from the 21-year-old star.

Newcomer Willson Contreras put up solid numbers as the Red Sox’ new cleanup hitter, belting 18 homers with 72 RBI and an .831 OPS. Jarren Duran added some pop to the middle of the order with 15 homers and an .827 OPS.

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On the pitching side, Garrett Crochet again performed like an ace with a team-best 2.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He tallied 247 strikeouts and only 44 walks.

It turns out that 36-year-old veteran Sonny Gray was the club’s No. 2 starter after all, as he posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Fellow offseason addition Ranger Suarez failed to live up to expectations as he finished with a 4.37 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

There was some regression in the back end of the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman didn’t duplicate his historic 2025 campaign, but he still put up solid numbers as Boston’s closer. Garrett Whitlock struggled in his set-up role with a bloated 4.42 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.

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MLB Playoffs

The Red Sox’ 92 wins earned them the top Wild Card spot. They advanced to the American League Division Series by winning two out of three games against last year’s AL champions, the Blue Jays.

That set up a rematch with the Yankees in the ALDS. Boston still lacked the firepower to keep up with New York, as the Yankees cruised into the ALCS with a 3-0 sweep.

Here’s Strat-O-Matic’s full 2026 playoff prediction:

AL Wild Card Series

Red Sox over Blue Jays, 2-1

NL Wild Card Series

Cubs over Diamondbacks, 2-1

ALDS

Yankees over Red Sox, 3-0

Mariners over Royals, 3-1

NLDS

ALCS

Mariners over Yankees, 4-1

NLCS

World Series