The talk of baseball converged in Kansas City — before baseball was even played in Kansas City this year.
That part is coming soon. After the season-opening series in Atlanta, the Royals return to Kauffman Stadium on Monday.
But the Royals already starred in the World Baseball Classic earlier this month — Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez for champion Venezuela, Bobby Witt Jr. for the United States, Vinnie Pasquantino for Italy, with several others participating in the tournament, too.
The event’s stars comprise the Royals’ core. They were terrific a few weeks ago for their home countries. They were terrific a year ago for their MLB team.
The latter wasn’t enough to propel the Royals to the playoffs.
What will?
The Fangraphs’ model gives the Royals a 44.8% chance of reaching the playoffs in 2026. The betting market is in the same neighborhood — about 43.5%.
I’d probably put it a tick higher. Here are five ways the Royals can ensure those odds are much higher after an 82-80 season that finished just five games shy of the playoffs:
1. The outfield production
What’s the quickest path to five more wins? It’s more consistent output from the outfield — which happens to be the bottom half of the order.
The Royals’ outfield provided the least production in baseball last year — they were 29th in OPS, 30th in on-base percentage, 29th in home runs and 30th in runs. They had the highest frequency of soft contact.
It had two-pronged effect — they didn’t drive in runners, and they didn’t get on base to allow someone else to drive them in, either. Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez need more run-producing opportunities, and it’s the rest of the lineup that can help provide them.
I delved much deeper into this topic earlier in the week, but just league-average production from the Royals’ outfield would basically equate to five more wins — the very measure by which they fell short a year ago.
They can get there from the addition of Isaac Collins, the improvement of Jac Caglianone in his second year and a platoon in centerfield that allows them to pick-and-choose lineups based on matchups.
2. Health of the rotation
They were healthy in 2024.
They weren’t in 2025.
Guess which year they reached the postseason?
In 2024, starting pitchers Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Micheal Wacha combined to make 126 starts. Add in Alec Marsh, and the original rotation made 151 starts. Think about that. That left them only 11 games to figure it out, and six of those went to Michael Lorenzen after his acquisition at the deadline.
Last season, the Royals’ original rotation combined to make 116 starts, a precipitous drop. Only Wacha made more than 26. Thirteen pitchers started at least one game. Noah Cameron felt more a savior than a replacement.
Look, the Royals are better equipped to handle some rotation bumps and bruises. Their work at the trade deadline a year ago intentionally provided a cushion.
So why is this on the list? Because they’re still at their best when they put their best on the mound.
And their best is Ragans, the opening day ace who was limited to just 13 starts while battling a groin injury and then a rotator cuff ailment in 2025.
They need him healthy.
3. Baserunning
The top frustration of a year ago.
The Royals have far too much speed to make as many outs on the bases as they do, particularly considering a high percentage of those outs are not merely from aggression.
They ranked below league average in going first-to-third on singles, second-to-home on singles and first-to-home on doubles. A year earlier, they ranked in the top-5 in all of those categories.
But they were still picked off 21 times last season, the most in the majors, and their 72% successful stolen base rate ranked ahead of only the Colorado Rockies. Again, they were far better in 2025 at 81%.
Fangraphs ranked their baserunning as 21st overall – one year after they ranked seventh.
This is a spot in which the Royals should excel — some players more than others, sure — and it’s a spot in which they previously exceled with the same core group.
4. Internal growth
The offseason talk always focuses on how a team can add to its roster.
But how about improving the roster … with the players who already comprise it?
The Royals’ best addition last year was already on the team: Maikel Garcia.
He had a breakout season — following back-to-back years of a bWAR under 1.4 to compiling a 5.8 bWAR in 2025.
Who’s that player this year? The candidates start with the kids.
Caglianone really struggled in the majors last season, but time away should be beneficial for mind and body alike. He looked calmer in the box during the World Baseball Classic than he did late last year. The power is obvious. And Caglianone has hit everywhere he’s been. It still feels more a matter of when than if.
And after his September call-up, Carter Jensen actually compiled the sixth-best fWAR of any catcher. At 22, he’s now part of the group from the jump.
The Royals could also use more production from second baseman Jonathan India, who hit just .233 with little power across 567 plate appearances.
5. Swing decisions
The Royals scored 84 fewer runs in 2025 than they did in 2024.
A few of the above items already covered some ways they can close the gap.
But another? Their swing decisions.
It’s among the items hitting coach Alec Zumwalt and general manager J.J. Picollo mention most frequently.
But the Royals swung at the sixth-fewest strikes in baseball — including swinging at the sixth-fewest meatballs — yet they had the ninth-highest chase rate
They had the lowest walk rate in the American League.
Doing more damage at the plate starts with using the pitches on which you can inflict the damage.
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Sam McDowell is a columnist for The Star who has covered Kansas City sports for more than a decade. He has won national awards for columns, features and enterprise work. The Headliner Awards named him the 2024 national sports columnist of the year.