Repeat after me: it is only one game. It is only one game. It is only one game. In all seriousness, while Thursday afternoon’s game was not the start we wanted, it does demonstrate a continuation of last year’s team. If the Astros are ultimately unsuccessful it will be because they didn’t hit enough. We released our preview article where the staff made their picks. I enjoy reading those because you get a good cross-section of thought on the team, but I don’t enjoy writing them as much. I come from the school of thought that if I don’t go nearly 1000 or more words then I’m not trying hard enough.
This is going to be relatively simple. I am going to give you four numbers. The first one is the player’s BWAR per 150 games. We will then look at the 50 percent, 75 percent, and 90 percent intervals for those numbers. The idea from there will be to guestimate which of those numbers the player is most likely to achieve. On the bright side, this might one of my first labs without tables.
Catcher: Yainer Diaz (3.7 per 150, 1.9: 50%, 2.8: 75%, 3,3: 90%)
Diaz was my pick to struggle. I think the 50 percent marker is going to be closer to the right spot for Diaz and this could end up being a general theme for most of the players on the field. To put things simply, he just swings too often to be a productive offensive player. In the grand scheme of things, being a two win player is not the worst thing in the world. It maks you a decent regular at most positions. It also probably means we can cast our eyes towards Walker Janek to see what he is doing in Corpus Christi.
First Base: Christian Walker (2.3 per 150, 1.2: 50%, 1.8: 75%, 2.1: 90%)
This is another position where the 50 percent projection is probably the wisest one to take. In the grand scheme of things, if he could get to two wins he would be a halfway decent regular. According to the Fangraphs dollars per win formula, he would come fairly close to being worth the 20 million. Two wins might be a high bar for him to clear at this point in his career.
Second Base: Jose Altuve (4.0 per 150, 2.0: 50%, 3,0: 75%, 3.6: 90%)
Altuve will play in his 2000th game this season. It seems like only yesterday he was winning the AL MVP award. Unfortunately, he is not that guy anymore. The descent has been slow and steady, The bat speed is not quite what it used to be. The defensive capabilities are fading. Time catches up with all of us. Two wins seems like a good target for him. I suppose there is a chance he could elevate to three wins in a kind of renaissance season, but he is yet another descending asset.
Third Base: Carlos Correa (5.5 per 150, 2.8: 50%, 4.2: 75%, 4.9: 90%)
I don’t mean to sound like a broken record, but this is another guy on the wrong side of 30. Plus, moving from third base to shortstop does not help his value in terms of WAR. A season at the 50 percent mark would actually probably be a win for Correa. It would mean he would be a better than average regular and it would move him on his way to a borderline Hall of Fame career. A bust out would be nice, but it’s probably not in the cards.
Third Base/DH: Isaac Paredes (3.0 per 150, 1,5: 50%, 2.3: 75%, 2.7: 90%)
Finally, we get a guy in his prime. Paredes will be something of a utility guy who might be play third, second, first, and DH this season. Here I am gambling that this somehow translates to 140 games and I see no reason why his production should slip overall. That would put him at the 90 percent estimation. It would also make him the third most valuable Astro compared to these expectations.
Shortstop: Jeremy Pena (4.9 per 150, 2.5: 50%, 3.6: 75%, 4.4: 90%)
I am splitting the difference with Pena. I think he will ultimately play between 140 and 150 games because he has in every season of his career. Of course, last year saw a huge jump in offensive numbers, so it is extremely likely we see him slide back a bit. A 75 percent Pena is still a really good player. There might be only a handful of shortstops in the game that are better overall players, but he probably comes closer to four wins than five or more.
Left Field: Yordan Alvarez (5.3 per 150, 2.7: 50%, 3.9: 75%, 4.8: 90%)
A number of us chose Yordan as the pick to click. Even last year, you could see he still had it when he had a healthy stretch in August. This was after his hands weren’t bothering him and before he twisted his ankle. Yordan has just been one of those guys that struggles to get on the field. This is simple. If Yordan plays in 140 or more games then he will be a four to four and a half win player. That’s a conservative estimate. I am going with the 90 percent predictor because hopefully the hand injuries are behind him.
Center Field: Jake Meyers (2.3 per 150, 1.2: 50%, 1.8: 75%, 2.1: 90%)
There isn’t a ton of variance in these numbers, so picking between them seems like a fruitless gesture. There are two things that can be true at the same time. On the one hand, he will be more valuable defensively as an extreme groundball pitcher leaves town. That means more plays for the outfielders. Yet, he likely will not hit nearly as well this season. The end result is probably the 90 percent marker, but in a different way. More than half of that will come with the glove.
Right Field: Cam Smith (2.1 per 150, 1.1: 50%, 1.5: 75%, 1.9: 90%)
This might be the only player where the 90 percent estimate is not strong enough. I see Smith as a three win player this season on the strength of good defense and more consistent offensive production. He won’t be an all-star or MVP candidate. He will be a solid overall regular player. In particular, look for gains in the power department as Smith probably comes closer to the 15 to 20 homer plateau than he was last season.
I should note that a team of replacement level players would probably win between 45 and 55 games depending on the season. So, if we split the difference that would be 50 wins. That means the team would need to find 40 wins to guarantee themselves a playoff berth. Based on these estimates, I am projecting the lineup to get around 20 wins. That means the bench and pitching staff needs to come up with the other 20 wins. Am I being too pessimistic? Do you think they can get to 40 wins?