New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates (Image via Imagn) The New York Mets are now seen as the top team likely to sign right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito as the 2026 MLB season begins. A few National League teams have shown interest, but the Mets look ready to offer more than the Atlanta Braves and close the deal.Giolito had a strong 2025 season with the Boston Red Sox. He finished with a 10-4 record and a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings. Even after that, he is still a free agent. For the Mets, this is a chance to improve a rotation that did not have a clear top starter last year.
How the Deal Could Take Shape
Reports suggest the Mets could offer a two-year deal worth between $38 million and $44 million. The contract may include bonuses based on innings pitched and overall fitness, considering his recent injuries.
Key Terms (Projected, March 2026):
• Years: 2 (2026–2027)• Total Value: $38–44M (AARP $19–22M/year)• Incentives: Health-based bonuses (e.g., 140+ innings at $1M/year)• Structure: No opt-outs, full escalators for 15+ wins or 200 IPs annually• Roster Fit: Giolito slots into the Mets’ NL East rotation: 3rd starter behind Senga, ahead of Peterson.The Braves were also interested at one point but are now expected to step away. They are worried about his age and past injuries, including elbow surgery in 2024. Atlanta may choose to save money and rely on other options.
Impact Across Teams
Lucas Giolito (Image via Getty)
PartyBenefitsNew York MetsBoost NL East rotation depth (Giolito vs. Senga/Peterson); potential 10-win lift to 2026 record; strengthens fanbase after 83-win 2025; leverages Giolito’s 2025 ERA and 121 strikeouts.Lucas Giolito$19M+ AARP ensures post-surgery validation; two-year deal avoids long-term risk at 31; Mets’ Citi Field suppresses HRs (1.0 HR/9 vs. 1.5 league avg).Atlanta BravesAvoids injury risk; reallocates $20M+ for Strider rehab or bullpen; maintains 2026 payroll flexibility.Free MarketSets 2026 FA bar for 30+ SPs; influences Padres/Phillies bids.
Strengths and Risks of the Move
For the Mets, Giolito is an upgrade. His 3.41 ERA is better than the team’s rotation ERA of around 4.00 from last season. He also brings more strikeouts. He made 26 starts in 2025, which shows he can stay on the field.There are still concerns. His numbers in 2022 and 2023 were not strong. He also had injuries before. At 31, there is also a question about how long he can keep this level.
Giolito Performance Snapshot
Giolito Career Stats (2022–2025):YearWLERAIPSOWHIPBB 2022 11 9 4.90 161.2 177 1.44 65 2023 8 15 4.88 184.1 204 1.31 61 2025 10 4 3.41 145 121 1.29 56 Total 71 66 4.30 1,158.2 1,198 1.26 382
Projected Mets Rotation with Giolito
2026 Mets Top 5 SP (Projected):No.NameAgeERA (2025)IPWHIP 34 Senga 33 3.20 170 1.10 35 Holmes 33 3.50 150 1.20 51 Peralta 30 3.80 160 1.30 23 Peterson 30 3.68 155 1.25 New Giolito 31 3.41 145 1.29Also read: MLB trade rumors: Detroit Tigers face blochbuster $140 million decision as Kevin McGonigle’s rise reshapes infield plansIf this deal happens, the Mets come out ahead. They add a reliable starter on a short deal. Giolito gets a chance to prove himself again. The Braves keep their budget flexible but may go into the season with fewer strong pitching options.