Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Doubt the Brewers at your own peril.
It hasn’t been the most difficult schedule to start the season, but Milwaukee is once again at the top of the National League standings, sitting 4-1 through five games — five games they had to play without franchise cornerstone Jackson Chourio (hand). This is simply a team that knows how to win on a budget. Ironically, this afternoon, it’ll play a rubber match with Tampa Bay. Another organization that consistently finds victory despite very little financial support.
First pitch is 1:40 p.m. ET. The Brewers are -143 favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s preview this matchup and make a couple picks.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction, preview
It would’ve been hard for Jacob Misiorowski to make a better statement than he did on Opening Day. After surrendering a leadoff home run to Chase Meidroth, the flame-throwing RHP only allowed one more hit across his five innings of work, striking out 11 White Sox in the process. Misiorowski threw 94 pitches and induced 25 whiffs. He threw three fastballs over 100 mph, including one offering that sat at 101.1 mph. In short, he was the version of himself that completely justified his invite to the All-Star Game in 2025. He was electric.
However, it remains a little difficult to completely trust Misiorowski. That’s the burden of someone who registered an 11.4% walk rate last season, and to that point, the right-hander did issue three free passes last Thursday to Chicago. This will be an interesting matchup against a Rays squad that has not swung and missed all that much to begin 2026. In fact, Tampa’s swinging strike rate is 8.9% after five contests — the lowest mark in the American League and trailing only Misiorowski’s own Brewers (7.5%) in all of baseball. Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda are both specifically off to amazing starts, each possessing a wRC+ over 200 and an expected wOBA above .450. It’s just 25 plate appearances apiece, but that’s nothing to sneeze at.
Opposing Misiorowski on the bump will be Drew Rasmussen. The veteran threw five one-run innings of his own last Thursday, though he went about it in a very different way. Rasmussen struck out only two opposing hitters, yet he also did not walk a soul. It was the continuation of what was an incredible 2025 campaign for the RHP — though one that was not heavily publicized. Rasmussen posted a 2.76 ERA and a 3.48 xERA over exactly 150.0 innings. The 30-year-old has had his durability issues in the past, but he’s been super effective when available for a half-decade at this point. Heck, from 2021 to 2025, among pitchers with at least 400 innings, the only starter with an ERA lower than Rasmussen’s 2.79 mark is Brandon Woodruff (2.77). Just another way these eerily similar franchises intersect.
Rays vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Rasmussen only had a 24th percentile whiff rate last season (22.2%) and he went under this prop in 16 of his 31 starts. Meanwhile, the Brewers own the league’s lowest swinging strike rate through the opening week of this season (7.5%).
This is simply a wager on the consistency of Rasmussen over the unpredictability of Misiorowski. Rasmussen possesses a 2.79 ERA across the past five years. He’s better than you think he is, while Misiorowski could walk half of Tampa’s lineup in the first frame. The Rays just feel like a live dog.