Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

The opening days of the 2026 MLB season have been an absolute blast to watch, and as we continue the second week of action on the diamond, there are plenty of games for fans and bettors alike to choose from.

Wednesday’s slate is almost exclusive to the afternoon window, but that’s no April Fool’s joke. We love daytime baseball here, and an NL West showdown the San Francisco Giants (2-3) and San Diego Padres (1-4) should provide plenty of entertainment.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Giants vs. Padres matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Giants vs. Padres prediction, preview

It took the Giants three games to score even a single run in an opening-series sweep, but they’ve now won the first two contests of this divisional road trip and have 12 runs across those two games. They also had a staggering 16 hits last night against German Marquez as the bats finally sputtered to life. Like I said in the last two write-ups, it was only a matter of time! While San Francisco still has a paltry .594 OPS with a .215/.275/.319 slash line, there’s suddenly reason to feel encouraged. A BB% of 6.7% at the plate is third lowest in baseball and a 52.8% GB% (second highest) means the hitters aren’t elevating all that much yet, but the Giants could begin to find their form over the coming days after shaking off the sluggish start. Their arms have been good already with a 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, ranking eighth in K% at 26.7% as well. The bullpen in particular is dealing, allowing just a .159 AVG with an 0.91 WHIP.

The Padres’ offense is yet to have an explosion of a night like the Giants just had, but maybe that’s what they need to get out of their own heads. They generated three runs on six hits yesterday but the team’s overall numbers are certainly ugly through five games. They have a .515 OPS on a .182/.257/.258 slash line and are one of only two teams with an ISO below .100, so they certainly aren’t driving the ball much. As the only team with only one home run on the new year, the long ball hasn’t shown up yet either. Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Ramon Laureano are the team’s only players with a .300 OBP or better, so the remainder of the lineup is really struggling early on. The Padres’ pitching staff also has a 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and while fielding hasn’t exactly helped since they’re underperforming a 3.84 FIP, things just don’t look good here. Thankfully, it’s a long season.

The Giants will start Adrian Houser for the first time this season. In 2025, he ended the year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, striking out just 92 batters in 125 innings. He graded out in the 82nd percentile in barrel rate and 79th percentile in GB%, so watch for him to try and keep the ball low tonight.

For the Padres, it’s Nick Pivetta on the mound for his second appearance. He went just three innings on Opening Day in an ugly showing that included six earned runs on seven hits, plus three walks and four strikeouts. However, he’s far better than that stat line after tossing a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 190 punchouts in 181.2 innings last season.

Giants vs. Padres pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Padres as -156 Moneyline favorites at home on Wednesday. The Giants are listed at +129 odds to win outright with the run total set at a combined eight.

Best Bet: Under eight runs (-115)

I’m 4-for-4 on my picks in this series thus far and would love to keep that perfect record going today. Pivetta should play way better than he did in his opening start and I don’t see the Giants getting a ton going against him in the early stages. Houser allowed lots of hard contact last season but the Padres are apparently incapable of driving the baseball right now. With a strong San Francisco bullpen in the mix and few homers between these sides to start the campaign, I like the under here.

Strong Lean: Nick Pivetta 6+ strikeouts (-145)

The -145 odds are nothing special, but this feels like a safe strikeout prop to me. Pivetta had a 78th-percentile K% at 26.4% last season in something of a down year, but he finished in the 88th percentile in 2024 and 93rd percentile in 2023. I like him to see some positive regression in this regard. Plus, the Giants were happy to swing plenty last year and were towards the bottom of the MLB in strikeouts per game with 8.52, so I’m hoping old habits die hard in this one after Pivetta struck out at least six hitters in two of his four 2025 starts against San Francisco.