The Red Sox are -150 favorites vs the Padres

Padres vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs

Padres / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | PDTV

The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-150) on April 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Boston, MA.

This season, the Padres are 2-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 2-5 ATS.

Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 1-0, 0.00 ERA

Red Sox starting pitcher: Connelly Early 0-0, 1.69 ERA

Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylinePadres+1.5 -175O 8 -115+125Red Sox -1.5 +145U 8 -105-150

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)

Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)

Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+8.80 Units / 88% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)

Wilyer Abreu has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+8.90 Units / 148% ROI)

Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)

Roman Anthony has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.85 Units / 84% ROI)

Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 151 games (+17.30 Units / 10% ROI)

The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 away games (+15.75 Units / 21% ROI)

The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 away games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)

The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI)

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 100 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games at home (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+10.70 Units / 13% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+10.30 Units / 10% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 2-4 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -35.44% ROI).

2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -43.21% ROI

2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -30.32% ROI

4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 24.84% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 2-5 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -40.13% ROI).

2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -48.37% ROI

4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 9.8% ROI

3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -18.06% ROI

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Padres were 32-17 (.653) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2025 season Today, they face the Red Sox (28th in runs scored).

The Padres were 42-25 (.627) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams in the 2025 season Today, they face the Red Sox (26th runs allowed).

The Padres were 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Padres were 48-12 (.800) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Red Sox were 37-14 (.725) when they scored in the first inning in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

The Red Sox were 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have an OBP of just .264 (246 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .554 (246 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .574 (179 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

The Red Sox batted .258 against LHP in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters had an OBP of .326 (1,777 PA’s) against LHP in the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have drawn walks in 4% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have grounded into 7 double plays in 36 opportunities (19%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games in the 2025 season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Padres allowed 1.04 runs per game (168/162) in late innings in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.22 (792.0 IP) at home since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Red Sox pitchers in the 2025 season traveled 511.8 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .133 against Red Sox pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 3% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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