The Minnesota Twins pulled out the win in the home opener Friday after trailing 3-0 against the Rays, going on to prevail 10-4. This time around, the numbers suggest a different story. Mick Abel (13.50 ERA, 3.60 WHIP) had a nightmare start to the season against an average Baltimore offense and faces a Rays lineup that has been strong against right-handed pitching thus far. Tampa Bay ranks third in BA (.293) and 7th in wRC+ (128) against RHPs. I expect the Rays’ offense to get to the 24-year-old coming off a rocky start.
On the contrary, lefty Steven Matz (7.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) takes the bump for Tampa Bay in a much more favorable spot. While Matz didn’t have an ideal start to the season either, he faces a Twins offense showing some rough splits early on this season. Minnesota is posting a 145 wRC+ against RHP compared to a 78 wRC+ against LHP; that’s a drastic drop off. As the Rays’ bullpen is posting a league-worst ERA thus far, I’ll back the lefty Matz to keep the Twins quiet early and take Tampa Bay on the First 5 Innings money line.
Rays vs Twins prediction: Tampa Bay F5 ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.