Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets on Tuesday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The New York Mets (6-4) just took their most recent series and have newfound momentum as their next set of games begins against another NL West opponent. The Arizona Diamondbacks (5-5) have also shaken off a first-series sweep and look more like themselves, so this should be a fun three-game set in the Big Apple.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for today’s Diamondbacks vs. Mets matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets prediction, preview
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were swept in an opening series against the Dodgers but have looked better since shaking that one off. They proceeded to break out the brooms against the Tigers and took another two games against the Braves as well, so they’ve now won five of their last seven. Arizona averages just 3.50 runs per game and the offense is clearly a work in progress as things stand. The Diamondbacks have a .638 OPS and .211/.271/.367 slash line, with that OBP marking one of the worst in baseball. However, a .156 ISO ranks ninth in the MLB and they’re 11th in average exit velocity, also tallying eight homers. The pitching staff also ranks in the league’s lower half with a 4.60 ERA, but a 1.27 WHIP is a good deal better. The biggest downside by far is that the D-Backs are third worst in K% at 17.9%, so they’re not striking batters out much at all.
New York Mets
These Mets won two of their first three series over the Pirates and Giants, recently taking three straight games against the latter. However, the injury suffered by Juan Soto will likely keep the $765-million man sidelined, leaving the team without its top hitter by far. Overall, New York averages 4.90 runs per game — good for ninth — with a .723 OPS as a team. The Mets slash .250/.333/.390 with a .140 ISO and nine long balls. They do have the sixth-best BB/K ratio at 0.50 thanks in large part to a low 20.7% K% at the plate, but whether this continues without Soto is uncertain. Their own pitchers have been excellent, logging the third-best ERA at 2.52 and an excellent 1.15 WHIP overall as a staff. They’re also ninth in K-BB% at 15.2%, so while their K% of 24.1% isn’t super stellar, they’re not giving up free passes by any means and remain efficient as a whole.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
The Diamondbacks are set to start RHP Zac Gallen, who’s thrown 10.0 innings with nine hits, two walks, four earned runs and four strikeouts. He did toss six innings of scoreless ball in his most recent game against the Tigers. Last season, he threw to the tune of a 4.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 175 Ks in 192 IP.
RHP Freddy Peralta suits up for the Mets with 10.1 IP to his name in 2026. In that span, he’s given up five earned runs on nine total hits, issuing two walks but striking out 14 batters with seven punchouts in each game. His most recent start against the Cardinals saw him throw 5.1 innings with three hits and one earned run allowed. He tossed 176.2 innings last season with a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, cutting down 204 batters.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets as -163 ML favorites. The Diamondbacks are behind at +135 odds to win outright. The run total sits at seven combined runs between these sides.
Surprisingly, the Mets looked just fine in a couple of games without Soto. They put up a combined 14 runs in the pair of wins, and they scored 10 in the game during which he was injured after his first at-bat to make it 24 total runs since. Maybe they’ll be just fine after all. Even if the offense does regress a little bit, Peralta gives New York a major advantage through the early stages and the Mets’ bullpen split of a 1.66 ERA/1.11 WHIP looks a heck of a lot better than the Diamondbacks’ 6.50 ERA/1.44 WHIP once the relievers come out. With the Mets’ bullpen also third in LOB% at 82.0%, I like them to limit the visitors as this run line cashes at plus odds.