Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Cam Smith.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate: Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Cam Smith.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Cody Bellinger 1+ Home Run (+433)
Someone on the Yankees is hitting a home run tonight. I’m sure of that. It’s just that Yankee Stadium and Aaron Civale don’t seem like a particularly good match. Across 2024 and 2025, Civale surrendered 1.54 opponent home runs per nine — the fifth-most of any pitcher with at least 250 innings thrown in that span. It probably doesn’t bode well for the veteran that his average fastball velocity was down in his first outing of 2026, either. Civale already ranked in the 18th percentile of the category last season, so any further dip is a massive red flag. Obviously, there’s a handful of New York bats that find themselves in a good spot on Tuesday due to the presence of Civale, but I’m going to take my chances with Cody Bellinger. The former NL MVP was the best version of himself at Yankee Stadium in 2025, slashing .302/.356/.544 with a 152 wRC+. Bellinger also hit 18 of his 29 home runs while playing in the Bronx. The 30-year-old is off to a hot start this season, with a .410 expected wOBA in his first 40 plate appearances. Look for Bellinger to keep the good time rolling this evening.
This feels like a pretty great number to get Smith at, especially considering how fantastic the sophomore has been to start the season. Heck, Smith literally hit a 462-foot home run on Monday night. Talk about taking advantage of the conditions at Coors Field.
Across 45 plate appearances in 2026, Smith is in possession of a 92nd percentile barrel rate (19.2%) and the 90th percentile expected wOBA (.411). Yes, these are very small samples, but they are both backed up by 98th percentile bat speed (77.4). The 23-year-old is simply an athletic freak. There’s a reason Smith was the 14th-overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, and there’s a reason he made the Astros’ big league roster out of Spring Training last season, despite having taken only 20 PAs above High-A in his career. He’s just dripping with talent, and he’ll get the benefit of facing the left-handed Kyle Freeland on Tuesday evening. Smith posted a 130 wRC+ against southpaws in his rookie campaign. This is the split where you want to be betting on Smith to go yard.
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ Home Run (+357)
It’s been a slow start to the season for Acuna, who has just one extra-base hit in his first 48 plate appearances. Still, this is a former MVP. A three-time Silver Slugger award winner. There’s no doubt that Acuna will shake off this slump at some point and start launching the ball — so why not tonight? The matchup certainly hints towards a breakout performance. Yusei Kikuchi will toe the rubber for the Angels, and it’s been a rough start to 2026 for the lefty, as he owns a 6.52 ERA after a pair of starts. Kikuchi has also long been traumatized by the home run ball. For his career, Kikuchi has surrendered 1.50 homers per nine with a 9.4% opponent barrel rate. The veteran LHP still has great raw stuff at the age of 34, but when Kikuchi’s missed his spots at the MLB level, he’s often been punished in a big way. In an opposite hand showdown, I’ll back Acuna to get his first home run of the year.