Derek CartyApr 7, 2026, 09:51 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Tuesday’s top batter prop bets

Bryce Harper | OVER 0.5 HR (+630)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.20 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 16.8 mph in this contest, the second-most favorable of the day for batters.

Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 RBI (+288)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past 14 days, McLain has posted a 24.8-degree launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Will Benson | UNDER 0.5 H (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Benson has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, hitting balls between -4 and 26 degrees just 12.5% of the time over the past seven days.

Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets

Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 K (+120)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.51 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 2 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Fenway Park.

Taj Bradley | UNDER 5.5 K (+126)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.54 EV
One reason to bet this: A hitters’ umpire (Quinn Wolcott) is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

Kevin Gausman | OVER 6.5 K (+112)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.50 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Gausman performed well and accumulated 10 strikeouts.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Noah Cameron

-102

46.6

-6.60

+1.0

-164

-5.68

6.5

O -125

7.25

0.04

Gavin Williams

-118

53.4

-2.38

-1.0

+125

-6.83

U +104

-9.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andrew Abbott

+119

48.6

6.70

+1.0

-136

2.47

7.0

O -122

8.72

12.73

Sandy Alcantara

-143

51.4

-12.86

-1.0

+105

-16.05

U +102

-23.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Javier Assad

+113

47.1

0.73

+1.0

-135

0.28

7.5

O -112

8.54

1.12

Drew Rasmussen

-136

52.9

-8.53

-1.0

+104

-13.52

U -108

-10.29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nick Pivetta

+128

49.9

15.89

+1.0

-122

14.78

6.5

O -108

6.69

-1.39

Paul Skenes

-155

50.1

-19.11

-1.0

-106

-28.25

U -112

-7.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Matthew Liberatore

-105

51.5

2.25

-1.0

+120

-1.81

7.5

O -110

7.25

-18.41

Cade Cavalli

-115

48.5

-10.95

+1.0

-157

-9.36

U -110

9.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob Misiorowski

+129

38.4

-11.95

+1.0

-122

-11.25

7.0

O +100

6.89

-7.32

Garrett Crochet

-156

61.6

1.01

-1.0

-106

-0.44

U -120

-1.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aaron Civale

+179

33.2

-9.41

+1.5

-120

-9.82

8.5

O -103

8.71

-8.35

Cam Schlittler

-219

66.8

-1.63

-1.5

+100

1.62

U -117

-0.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

-163

59.1

-3.13

-1.0

-129

-5.70

7.5

O -118

7.78

-12.86

Kevin Gausman

+135

40.9

-6.09

+1.0

-101

-6.70

U -102

4.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zac Gallen

+135

45.4

7.84

+1.0

-116

6.88

7.0

O -115

6.99

-12.15

Freddy Peralta

-163

54.6

-12.69

-1.0

-112

-19.36

U -105

3.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trevor Rogers

-143

55.3

-4.72

-1.0

-111

-7.05

7.0

O -102

7.89

8.53

Shane Smith

+119

44.7

-3.79

+1.0

-116

-4.85

U -118

-16.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tarik Skubal

-175

60.4

-3.15

-1.0

-135

-5.39

6.5

O -120

6.92

-2.94

Taj Bradley

+144

39.6

-6.38

+1.0

+103

-7.33

U +100

-5.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

George Kirby

-122

48.5

-11.27

-1.0

+105

-14.68

7.5

O -102

8.46

4.56

Nathan Eovaldi

+102

51.5

3.50

+1.0

-136

1.31

U -118

-12.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Burrows

-186

63.7

-2.01

-1.5

-120

-1.64

10.5

O -111

12.36

11.01

Kyle Freeland

+153

36.3

-8.24

+1.5

+100

-7.30

U -108

-19.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reynaldo Lopez

-143

54.9

-6.15

-1.0

-114

-8.13

8.5

O -118

9.45

-3.08

Yusei Kikuchi

+119

45.2

-1.95

+1.0

-114

-4.15

U -102

-5.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cristopher Sanchez

-156

62.4

4.24

-1.0

-123

3.09

7.0

O -112

7.62

-0.59

Robbie Ray

+129

37.6

-16.46

+1.0

-106

-16.16

U -108

-8.56