Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays.
The last time Yoshinobu Yamamoto took the mound at the Rogers Centre, it was a moment of jubilation, as fresh off of six innings of one-run ball in Game 6, he returned to the mound one night later to record the final seven outs of Game 7 to earn the win, the World Series MVP, and his second MLB title in as many seasons.
He’ll do so again tonight when the Los Angeles Dodgers travel to face the Toronto Blue Jays in Canada’s largest city, in the middle game of a three-game set. Los Angeles romped to victory, 14-2, last night.
The Blue Jays will oppose Yamamoto with Kevin Gausman, whom the Japanese star out-dueled twice during the World Series.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, preview
Game 1 of the rematch series hardly could’ve gone any more smoothly for the victors. The Dodgers raced out to a 2-0 lead in the first inning before opening up the game completely in the third, fourth, and fifth, building a 6-1 advantage by the midway point of the game. Los Angeles was so thoroughly dominant, in fact, that it was able to turn to shortstop Miguel Rojas to pitch the ninth inning instead of unnecessarily burning a reliever. All in all, the Dodgers are off to an 8-2 record, with the league’s best offense and (promisingly) the ninth-lowest bullpen ERA. They’ll try to keep momentum going against the slumping Blue Jays, who have lost five straight games after getting swept by the woeful Chicago White Sox and have dropped to 4-6. Toronto’s offense has still been okay, but its bullpen has imploded, and losing catcher Alejandro Kirk for several weeks with a thumb fracture will hurt both sides of the ball, given that Kirk was the second-best fielding catcher in baseball last season.
To be fair to the Blue Jays, Yamamoto hasn’t had a great start to the season by his standards. He pitched six innings and gave up two runs in each of his first two starts, conceding a total of nine hits. While solid numbers, they pale in comparison to the two runs on 10 hits and two walks that he gave up over 17.2 innings in the World Series. His advanced numbers back up the notion of a slow start; he ranks in just the 16th percentile in fastball run value so far, and his expected batting average sits in just the 30th percentile after he finished in the 99th and 93rd percentiles in those stats last season. Still, there’s little long term reason to be concerned; his splitter has been even better than it was last season, and his spin rates are up pretty much across the board. His four-seam fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball last season and has been one of the worst so far in 2025, but his meatball rate is down and his whiff rate is up. Where he’s struggled this season, Toronto doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage; he ranks in just the 43rd percentile in barrel rate, and the Blue Jays have recorded barrels at the fifth-lowest rate. They’ve also struggled to find the launch angle sweet spot. Given his incredible road form (a 2.13 ERA last season), I’d expect Yamamoto’s floor to be six innings and two runs.
Still, Los Angeles shouldn’t underestimate Gausman. The 35-year-old earned Cy Young Award votes in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and he’s off to an incredible start so far, combining to give up just three hits and one earned run in 12.0 innings while walking none and striking out an MLB-leading 21. His advanced numbers are just as elite: he ranks in the top decile in four different Statcast categories, including strikeout and walk rate, and both his fastball and his off-speed stuff have been even more elite than they were last season, when his 12.2 innings and six earned runs in the World Series could’ve been enough to out-duel most pitchers not named Yamamoto. To be fair, he struggles to induce grounders, and the Dodgers have been among the league’s best at avoiding getting the ball up. They were also slightly better against right-handed pitchers, thanks to their litany of dominant lefties (most notably Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy). Ohtani and Tucker have both started to find their grooves as of late after a rough start to the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: NRFI (-125)
The top of the order is stacked for both teams, with Los Angeles starting the game with Ohtani, Tucker, and Freeman and Toronto likely opting for George Springer, Davis Schneider, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Any of those six players could score with one swing, but the Dodgers have been quiet in the first inning (a .596 OPS) before heating up later, and Yamamoto allowed just a .562 opening-frame OPS in 2025.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 Total Home Runs (-135)
If either of these pitchers gets beaten, it’ll be via the long ball, given the relatively high barrel rate that each has given up so far this season. While the Blue Jays don’t quite have the raw, top-to-bottom power that Los Angeles does, Guerrero, Springer, and Kazuma Okamoto are always a threat to get a hold of one. Plus, both bullpens — especially Toronto’s — are susceptible to the long ball. There were at least four homers in two of the four games at Rogers Centre in last fall’s World Series, though neither in the games started by Yamamoto.