Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox on Tuesday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. Last night at Fenway Park, the Milwaukee Brewers (8-2) tacked another tally into the win column with an 8-6 victory over the Boston Red Sox (2-8). The series continues on Tuesday with perhaps one of the best pitching matchups of the season as Jacob Misiorowski takes on Garrett Crochet. In this duel between unbelievable arms, will the home side be able to snap this losing streak?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Red Sox matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
Following last night’s win, the Brewers remain tied with the L.A. Dodgers for the best record in the MLB. That game ended in an exciting 8-6 finish with 22 combined hits as Milwaukee came back from down 3-0 in the fourth inning to eventually secure the W. Now, the Brew Crew are tied for second in scoring with 6.80 runs per game. Productive bats have been the key to success at third in OPS (.813) with a slash line of .271/.376/.437. A .165 ISO ranks fourth in the MLB and they’ve bashed a respectable 10 homers, but it’s also prowess on the basepaths that’s allowed this hot start. They’re tops in speed score and have by far the most stolen bases in baseball with 21… the next-closest team has just 12. Plus, a 13.9% BB% sits tied for first and they’re second in BB/K ratio at 0.60. While the pitching staff’s 3.34 ERA ranks eighth in the sport, there are a couple of concerns for their performance so far. A 1.31 WHIP is a slightly elevated mark and they’ve outperformed a 4.33 FIP thus far, which falls 21st overall. Perhaps there’s been some luck involved, but the Brewers do have the second-best LOB% (81.9%) and have gotten out of jams better than most teams. Plus, their 28.5% K% ranks third best.
Boston Red Sox
Anyone who predicted that Boston would hold the worst record in baseball through its first 10 games may have been heralded as a madman prior to the start of the season. However, such a projection may have come from a soothsayer, or perhaps an oracle. The Red Sox have cratered to 2-8 due to various factors, but poor performance has come from many sources. The staff’s 4.84 ERA ranks 25th of 30 teams, as does a 1.45 WHIP. Despite some average marks in K% and BB%, success just hasn’t come for this roster yet. With the second-most errors (11), the fielding is also to blame for the team’s shortcomings. The bats aren’t absolvent of blame, either — the Sox have a .231/.302/.380 slash line with a .682 OPS. Yes, that latter mark is around the middle of the pack, but the OBP is an issue in the lower section of teams. A .148 ISO is good for 11th and they have nine homers, but the overall plate approach is another low point at 26th in K/BB ratio (0.32).
Tonight’s starting pitchers
The Brewers start young RHP Jacob Misiorowski, who’s been quite good to start the season. He struck out 11 batters in his first start against the White Sox while allowing just one earned run, two hits and three walks in five innings. He then went six innings against the Rays with two earned runs allowed on four hits and two walks, also striking out seven. In 2025, he tossed 66 innings with a 4.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, cutting down 87 hitters on strikes.
The Red Sox send out star LHP Garrett Crochet, who’s had a couple of outings at opposite ends of the spectrum. Against the Reds, he threw six shutout innings with just three hits and two walks allowed, striking out eight hitters. He collapsed against the Astros in his more recent start, giving up six hits and four earned runs in five innings, though he struck out seven. Last season, he recorded a 2.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 255 punchouts in 205.1 innings.
Brewers vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as -156 favorites at home tonight. The Brewers are listed at +129 odds to win outright with the run total set at only seven between these sides.
Best Bet: Jacob Misiorowski 8 or fewer hits + walks + earned runs allowed (-135)
The Red Sox aren’t hitting well, which puts Misiorowski in an even better position tonight. The 24-year-old averages 98.6 mph on his fastball and is an absolute fireballer, and he’s played quite well in his first two starts. While he allowed a homer in both, he’s stayed under eight combined H + BB + ER allowed in each of those two outings and has a 94th-percentile whiff rate with a 95th-percentile K%. Yes, the sample size is small, but he looks even better than in last year’s debut campaign. Plus, Boston ranks second worst in whiff rate at 32.0%. Misiorowski may pick this lineup apart, and he may not pitch deep into this one to begin with.