Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The San Diego Padres (5-5) struggled through their first few games but just got back to .500 with a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-4) last night. Will game two of this three-game set play out in similar fashion on Tuesday?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Padres vs. Pirates matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Pirates prediction, preview
San Diego Padres
The Friars had a really rough start to their 2026 but have won three straight games to even their record out at 5-5. Now, they’ll look to shake off that sluggish first couple of weeks to look more like the version of themselves that made the postseason last year. As things stand, the Padres’ offense averages only 3.70 runs per game, but that’s increased to 5.30 over the last three matchups. A .629 OPS still sits 24th among the 30 teams though, and a .218/.292/.336 slash line is uninspiring. Couple that with the fourth-lowest ISO at .118 and second-fewest homers (just five) and it makes sense that the bats haven’t put many runs on the scoreboard. As for the pitching staff, the Padres have a 3.74 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and one can argue they’ve had some poor luck with a 3.23 FIP — fourth best in baseball. This may be another year in which San Diego relies heavily on its arms rather than its bats.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Prior to the season, some pundits picked the Pirates to have something of a resurgent season and challenge for a Wild Card berth. Through the first couple of weeks, a 6-4 record and two series wins suggest that it may just be possible. Pittsburgh averages 4.50 runs per game with a .723 OPS that ties for ninth best with the New York Mets. Wow, how about that? It’s early, but the Pirates are slashing .239/.337/.386 with a .147 ISO that’s good for 12th overall. Their 12 homers are sixth most of any team as well. Not only are the results quite solid, but the Pirates’ process at the dish looks good as well with a 0.55 BB/K ratio that ranks third in the entire MLB. That’s quite impressive for a younger roster. Whether those numbers hold up is up for debate, but things are going swimmingly thus far. Their pitching staff has produced the ninth-best ERA at 3.50 despite a 1.38 WHIP, and they’re 10th in LOB% as well. Plus, a 26.4% K% sits seventh in the sport.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
For the Padres, RHP Nick Pivetta gets the starting nod. He melted down on opening day with six earned runs in just three innings, but he bounced back nicely in his second start with five innings of scoreless ball, giving up just one hit and two walks while striking out eight hitters. Last season, he ended with a 2.87 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, striking out 190 batters in 181.2 IP.
It’s Paul Skenes day for the Pirates as the reigning Cy Young winner takes the mound. The RHP didn’t even make it a full inning on Opening Day before allowing five earned runs, but his second start was better with one earned run allowed on three hits and two walks, striking out five in five innings. Skenes’ 2025 saw him end the year with a 1.97 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, punching out 216 across 187.2 IP.
Padres vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -149 ML favorites this evening at home. The Padres hold +123 odds of an outright win with the run total set at a miniscule six combined scores.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes over 17.5 outs recorded (-149)
Say what you want about the value here, but I like Skenes to go a full six innings in today’s matchup. He’s one of the two best pitchers in the MLB, even if his first couple of starts haven’t looked like his typical self. This is the perfect chance to shake off some of that early season rust since he’s facing a pretty poor batting order that hasn’t gotten much going through these early days of the campaign. While the -149 value here isn’t great as a standalone play, I do like it as a builder for a parlay given the circumstances (he went over 17.5 outs in 21/32 games last season) and would strongly consider under 6.5 hits + earned runs + walks allowed as well at -110 for something slightly better in terms of standalone payout.