Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies on Wednesday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The Colorado Rockies (5-6) secured a homestand series victory over the Houston Astros (6-6) with back-to-back wins in the last two days, but the visitors will surely look to stop the bleeding and take tonight’s matchup.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Rockies matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Houston Astros
There’s a lot to say about the Astros, but their approach will certainly rely on offense to win games for the time being with one of the worst-performing pitching staffs in baseball, especially with Hunter Brown now sidelined for multiple weeks. Tonight’s starter probably won’t help things at Coors Field, but more on that shortly. A 5.74 ERA as a team — yes, 5.74 — ranks second worst in the MLB and a 1.57 WHIP has played a huge role in that. Even with a 26.1% K% that’s good for eighth overall, there are mounting concerns about the arms here. That’s especially true in the bullpen, which ha a 6.60 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, though waiving Roddery Munoz may help that come down slightly. The bats may be enough to secure wins when they’re hot, though. An .851 OPS is still second in baseball and a .275/.379/.472 slash line includes the best OBP of any team. Plus, a .198 ISO also ranks second alongside 16 home runs and a league-best 0.68 BB/K keeps solid pitch selection coming. That all adds up to 6.50 runs per game, second most in the MLB.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have now won three straight games with a pair of wins over the Astros and one more over the Phillies back on Sunday, and with 18 runs over that span, things are looking up somewhat. It’ll surely be another losing season, but enjoying these moments while they last and seeking the sweep tonight are the things that can keep a fanbase happy. Colorado averages 4.00 runs per game on the young season with a .660 OPS and .239/.287/.374 slash line, still sitting fifth-to-last in OBP. While also fourth worst in K% at the dish with a 28.1% mark and dead last in BB/K ratio at 0.21, the aggressive approach has worked out better of late. The Rockies also have a .134 ISO with 11 homers, but they’re near the bottom of the sport in extra-base hits. Holding this Houston offense to five combined runs in the last two outings has also gotten the staff to the ninth-best ERA at 3.08 and a 1.13 WHIP that sits seventh in baseball. That may not be a trend that lasts and may come as a result of the small sample size, but they’re also fourth in K-BB% at 20.2%. Keep an eye on ’em.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
For Houston, RHP Cristan Javier gets the starting nod after an abysmal start to the season. He’s allowed the second-most earned runs in the AL with 12 across just 8.1 IP, also giving up the third-most walks (nine) while striking out only three batters. He returned from serious injury last season and didn’t look much like his old self with a 4.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, and while the 12.96 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in 2026 will surely come down, it may be time to raise the alarm bells.
Thankfully for Houston, the Rockies’ own RHP looks rough so far this year. Michael Lorenzen takes the mound with an NL-worst 19 hits and the third-most earned runs allowed with 12 so far over the course of only 7.1 IP. He’s also coughed up three homers with two walks and six punchouts. Much like Javier, a 14.73 ERA and 2.86 WHIP won’t look this bad for long, but it’s been a horrific start to his first year with Colorado following a 4.64 ERA/1.33 WHIP campaign in 2025.
Astros vs. Rockies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -143 ML favorites. The Rockies are behind at +119 odds to win outright. The run total sits at 11.5 combined runs between these sides.
Best Bet: Both teams to score 3+ runs in first five innings (+190)
Man, I wish I could take an over on combined earned runs between these two starters. They’re both among the MLB’s most vulnerable arms to begin the new season through their first two respective starts, but unfortunately, there’s not a combined o/u market for this. However, I am instead looking at both teams to score 2+ runs in the first five innings with -120 odds, though 3+ runs for each in the same span brings a better payout at +190. It’s 73 degrees at Coors Field and these guys are both struggling, so combined with the offense-first approach from the Astros and recent hot streak in the scoring column from the Rockies, I think I’m cool targeting 3+ runs for each side in the first five frames given the value.