Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants on Wednesday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The Philadelphia Phillies (6-5) and San Francisco Giants (4-8) split their first two games of this series in the Bay Area. At 3:45 p.m. ET today, they battle for the third time to determine the series winner.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Phillies vs. Giants matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Giants prediction, preview
Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll hit an abbreviated look at both teams today given the afternoon start time. The Phillies have won two of their first three series and are 6-5 thus far, but they’re not quite the team they were last season, at least not yet. The offense has produced 3.82 runs per game, 19th in the MLB, slashing .227/.312/.369 with the 15th-ranked OPS at .681. It’s not great, but it’s not bad either. They’re also in the middle of the pack with an 0.43 BB/K ratio at the plate, but a .142 ISO ranks 11th in baseball with 11 homers and 20 extra-base hits to show for it. The Phils are also average in terms of ERA at 4.18, though there’s certainly been bad luck involved since the staff’s 2.82 FIP is third best of any team. They also have the 13th-best WHIP at 1.28 and the second-best K-BB% at 21.2%.
San Francisco Giants
At 4-8, the Giants have experienced a really poor start to the 2026 campaign. They’ve dropped four of their last five with their lone series win against the San Diego Padres, who also don’t look too hot thus far. Scoring just 3.00 runs per game, fewest in the sport, isn’t exactly a recipe for success. This lineup looks abysmal with an MLB-worst OPS of .605 on a .230/.281/.324 slash line. Plus, they have a paltry .094 ISO and are the only team with that mark below .115. Oh, and they have just four homers as well. Toss in an 0.29 BB/K ratio and it comes into focus why this team is struggling o much. Looking toward their arms, the Giants have produced an ERA of 4.37 while underperforming a 3.67 FIP. They also hold a 1.36 WHIP with a 13.5% K-BB% that sits 13th.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
It’s RHP Aaron Nola on the bump for the Phillies this afternoon with a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in two starts, also punching out 16 batters in 11.1 IP. While he gave up a pair of homers with three earned runs in his opening start, he tightened things up in his second with five hits and one earned run allowed in his second outing over the course of 6.1 IP. He’s struck out seven and nine batters in each game.
The Giants deploy RHP Tyler Mahle, who’s looked rather shaky to start his season in two starts with a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, striking out nine hitters in 9.0 IP. He gave up two earned runs on five hits in his opener but allowed five earned runs with two homers in his most recent appearance, so it’s been a mixed bag early on.
Phillies vs. Giants pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -136 ML favorites. The Giants are listed at +113 odds to win outright. The run total sits at 8.5 combined runs between these sides.
Best Bet: PHI Phillies ML (-136)
I’m pretty in on the Phillies today, honestly. They’re hitting far better than this Giants lineup that is quite literally the worst in the MLB at the dish right now, and Nola could find himself positioned for a bounce-back campaign. His 34.0% K% is rocking right now and he’s had batters chasing and whiffing at a 70th-percentile rate or better through two games, also limiting free passes and keeping exit velocity down. He’s not a pitcher this San Francisco squad will break out of its slump against, and so long as Philly keeps errors to a minimum, the visitors should take the series this afternoon.