Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. The Miami Marlins (6-5) are hosting a four-game set against the Cincinnati Reds (8-3) and just dropped game two to the visitors last night, 6-3. These are two of the MLB’s most underrated, surprisingly fun teams, so this should be an excellent remainder of the series as the third duel begins at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Reds vs. Marlins matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Reds vs. Marlins prediction, preview

Cincinnati Reds

Through their first 11 games, the Reds are tied for the second-best record in baseball at 8-3. They’ve now won five straight games, including a series sweep over the Texas Rangers along with victories of 2-0 and 6-3 over this Marlins group. Notably, Cincinnati averages the third-fewest runs per game at only 3.09, but the team has eked out some close contests and has dug deep to do so even despite something of a decimated starting rotation. Even with the fourth-lowest OPS at .610 and a .204/.288/.322 slash line, plus a lot .117 ISO, the Reds have made it work. They’ve mashed 10 homers and have 10 stolen bases, also garnering an 0.42 BB/K ratio. So, how have the wins come? Pitching is the answer — their 2.82 ERA ranks fifth and a 1.19 WHIP is a quality mark. Best of all is an MLB-leading LOB% of 82.7%.

Miami Marlins

At 6-5 overall, you almost have to call this a quality start for a Marlins team that’s been pretty poor over the last couple of seasons but showed plenty of grit and promise for the future down the stretch in 2025. Now, they’re building on that, even if dropping four of their last five games is a momentary setback. Miami scores 4.73 runs per game thus far courtesy of the seventh-best OPS in baseball at .729. Mind you, the Marlins’ .253/.333/.397 slash line is without star Kyle Stowers in the lineup while he waits to make his season debut due to an injury. A .143 ISO ranks ninth overall despite hitting only eight long balls, too. They’re converting extra bases on a pretty frequent basis at seventh in doubles (20) and first in triples (four) as well. Plus, an 0.44 BB/K ratio sits among the middle of the pack. Their hurlers have been a bit of a mixed bag but a 3.95 ERA is good for 15th and a 1.16 WHIP ranks eighth overall. The Marlins are also 15th in K-BB% on the mound at 13.4%.

Tonight’s starting pitchers

RHP Brady Singer suits up for the Reds for the third time this season. With a 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, the rate stats could look better. He’s thrown 10 strikeouts over his 9.0 IP, so the sample size obviously remains small and it’s tough to assume he’s on the downswing after a 4.03 ERA/1.24 WHIP in 2025.

Fellow RHP Eury Perez makes his third start of 2026 as well. The 22-year-old missed much of last season due to injury but threw to the tune of a 4.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP when healthy, also punching out 105 hitters in 95.1 IP. In his two games so far this year, he holds a 5.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 strikeouts in 11.0 IP.

Reds vs. Marlins pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Marlins as -131 ML favorites. The Reds are behind at +109 odds to win outright. The run total sits at eight combined runs between these sides.

Best Bet: MIA Marlins -1.5 (+169)

I‘m targeting the Fish on the run line tonight thanks to the +169 value on this bet. While they’ve dropped their first two tilts to the Reds, the hitting results have been pretty excellent for this lineup and I don’t think they’ll continue to be held in check after recording just three hits in game one and a much better seven yesterday. There’s plenty of reason to believe in a better offensive performance that gets the Marlins to a multi-run victory here. Perez is a high-upside arm and Singer’s WHIP leaves something to be desired amidst this somewhat shaky start. With Miami slashing .270/.345/.455 against righties thus far, I’m pretty in on a bounce-back performance in this spot at home, where the team has also been slightly better at the dish.